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Abstract <p>This paper presents the results of a polarization analysis method in identifying ultra-low-frequency (ULF) precursors of relatively strong earthquakes in the Baikal Rift Zone that occurred between 2014 and 2023. The method utilizes the ratio of spectral power densities of the vertical and horizontal magnetic field components (<i>R</i><sub><i>ZH</i></sub>). To account for global geomagnetic activity, <i>R</i><sub><i>ZH</i></sub> variations were compared against global indices (<i>K</i>p, <i>Dst</i>, SME) and data from remote observatories in similar geomagnetic conditions. Despite isolated instances of <i>R</i><sub><i>ZH</i></sub> increasing before earthquakes, no statistically significant precursors were identified. The probable causes of these results and prospects for further research are discussed.</p>

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Identifying Ultra-Low-Frequency Geomagnetic Precursors of Baikal Rift Earthquakes via Polarization Analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月1日

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  • M. V. Prikop,
  • I. K. Seminsky

摘要

Abstract

This paper presents the results of a polarization analysis method in identifying ultra-low-frequency (ULF) precursors of relatively strong earthquakes in the Baikal Rift Zone that occurred between 2014 and 2023. The method utilizes the ratio of spectral power densities of the vertical and horizontal magnetic field components (RZH). To account for global geomagnetic activity, RZH variations were compared against global indices (Kp, Dst, SME) and data from remote observatories in similar geomagnetic conditions. Despite isolated instances of RZH increasing before earthquakes, no statistically significant precursors were identified. The probable causes of these results and prospects for further research are discussed.