<p><b>Abstract</b>—A computer method for systematic earthquake prediction is considered. The forecast is calculated regularly and for a constant time interval. The result is a map of the alarm zone in which the epicenters of the target earthquakes are expected. The forecast is considered successful if all epicenters of target earthquakes in a given interval fall within the alarm zone. The method of the minimum area of alarm is used to train the forecast. The method optimizes the probability of a successful forecast within a limited alarm zone, making it possible to estimate the probability of a successful decision at the next forecast interval and providing an explanation of the alarm zone using logical implication and a list of previous earthquakes with similar precursor values. An example of a systematic forecast of earthquakes in Kamchatka is considered.</p>

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Systematic Earthquake Forecast

  • V. G. Gitis,
  • A. B. Derendyaev

摘要

Abstract—A computer method for systematic earthquake prediction is considered. The forecast is calculated regularly and for a constant time interval. The result is a map of the alarm zone in which the epicenters of the target earthquakes are expected. The forecast is considered successful if all epicenters of target earthquakes in a given interval fall within the alarm zone. The method of the minimum area of alarm is used to train the forecast. The method optimizes the probability of a successful forecast within a limited alarm zone, making it possible to estimate the probability of a successful decision at the next forecast interval and providing an explanation of the alarm zone using logical implication and a list of previous earthquakes with similar precursor values. An example of a systematic forecast of earthquakes in Kamchatka is considered.