Aleatoric Models of the Domino Effect in Information Space for Induced Chain Reaction in Interpersonal Communications
摘要
This article is devoted to the development of modeling methods for the extremal propagation of an induced excitation in network communities. The problem of analysis of information space perturbation is considered as a form of an ordered chain reaction, which, however, has an aleatoric indeterminacy component at the key stage of the event branching process. In this conception, the account groups excited by fake information play the role of short-term emitters of a hype flow, which is analogous to decaying nuclei that have become unstable after the neutron capture. Network tsunamis aimed at spreading a distorted projection of an actual situation are similar in the activation and decay principles to processes in reactors in controlled nuclear decay. A targeted aggressive information leak induces the excitation of network nodes, which is analogous to the emission of a neutron flux. Predictions must take into account the fact that social communication segments differ in the degree of communication between the groups. The difference is observed in the resistance to an attack and the response to the action, which can be classified as positive, negative, or neutral. It is proposed that the properties of the hype flow after the leak of the “hot content” in a heterogeneous field be investigated as a type of chain reactions during the capture of particles. The network social medium is flexibly structured and separated into a large number of clusters. The communications between the clusters can be represented in the form of redefinable hypergraphs with random arcs. There appears the phenomenon of a political group polarization wave. The information attack concept takes into account the fact that the content in social platforms is controlled and admissible activity is moderated. The emission of the content for a subsequent separation of already segmented groups is connected with the factors of the information source and social-information communication channels. Any from the variety of factors can facilitate the enhancement or suppression of the group polarization. Dynamic effects of pulsed activity of information flow include natural activity (noise) in the information space as well as the emission of the content by organized means (botnet) for inducing a chain reaction of agitation waves and for manipulating the behavior. Wave phenomena of formation of chains of propagation and mutual pulsed activation/suppression of the resistivity of neutral participants are observed sporadically. A small perturbation is suddenly transformed into an avalanche of destructive emotions and mutual hatred like the nuclear decay energy. It is shown that the scenarios of botnet information attacks on network communities differ in dynamics from spontaneous phenomena of hype bursts by a series of regular spurious short peaks. Chain reactions and crises of the domino effect type are of variative and scenario nature. The processes without a predetermined choice from several courses are known as aleatoric processes. The reactions based on the principle of a falling domino set begin when the transformation of one group of reagents stimulate the reaction of another bound group of reagents in the presence of inducing catalysts (botnet in the network). The hype energy in a cluster is critically accumulated, which rapidly leads to a chain propagation of a wave; however, the passage of such a wave is unstable. It is proposed that the network tsunamic model be constructed using the method of an aleatoric chain with a probabilistic choice from the forms of logically coupled wave equations of the hype decay and activation modes.