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Abstract <p>This work presents a comprehensive analysis of the seismic and geodynamic settings before and after the March 28, 2025, <i>M</i>7.7 earthquake in Myanmar. The results of a global test of the <i>M</i>8 algorithm for forecast of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.5 and greater for this region were considered. It was analyzed how much the earthquake was expected in terms of long-term seismic hazard based on seismicity data alone. A geodynamic analysis was performed to assess the seismogenic potential of the Sagaing Fault before and after the earthquake. The risk of aftershocks was assessed. A model of the earthquake source was constructed to test the extremely fast rupture and to interpret the anomalously large length in the US Geological Survey model.</p>

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Forecast of Seismic and Geodynamic Settings before and after the Earthquake of March 28, 2025, M7.7, in Myanmar

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月14日

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  • S. V. Baranov,
  • F. E. Vinberg,
  • I. S. Vladimirova,
  • I. A. Vorobieva,
  • V. G. Kossobokov,
  • K. V. Krushelnitskii,
  • S. D. Matochkina,
  • A. K. Nekrasova,
  • G. M. Steblov,
  • A. I. Filippova,
  • A. S. Fomochkina,
  • P. N. Shebalin

摘要

Abstract

This work presents a comprehensive analysis of the seismic and geodynamic settings before and after the March 28, 2025, M7.7 earthquake in Myanmar. The results of a global test of the M8 algorithm for forecast of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.5 and greater for this region were considered. It was analyzed how much the earthquake was expected in terms of long-term seismic hazard based on seismicity data alone. A geodynamic analysis was performed to assess the seismogenic potential of the Sagaing Fault before and after the earthquake. The risk of aftershocks was assessed. A model of the earthquake source was constructed to test the extremely fast rupture and to interpret the anomalously large length in the US Geological Survey model.