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Abstract <p>The rapid reduction of the Arctic Sea ice area in recent decades and the increase in the duration of ice-free navigation along the Northern Sea Route is one of the positive consequences of global warming for Russia. At the same time, further retreat of the sea ice may lead to a continuous seasonal open-water period outside the Russian exclusive economic zone (EEZ) with significant economic and geopolitical risks. This work provides estimates of possible changes of the sea ice concentration in the Arctic and the length of the open-water period, including outside the Russian EEZ in the 21st century, based on the CMIP6 climate model ensemble for moderate and aggressive scenarios of anthropogenic impact on the climate. In particular, it is shown that, as early as in the middle of the 21st century, the duration of ice-free navigation outside the Russian EEZ may exceed two and a half months.</p>

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Estimates of Possible Changes in the Open-Water Period in the Russian Exclusive Economic Zone in the Arctic in the 21st Century

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月1日

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  • V. A. Semenov,
  • E. A. Cherenkova

摘要

Abstract

The rapid reduction of the Arctic Sea ice area in recent decades and the increase in the duration of ice-free navigation along the Northern Sea Route is one of the positive consequences of global warming for Russia. At the same time, further retreat of the sea ice may lead to a continuous seasonal open-water period outside the Russian exclusive economic zone (EEZ) with significant economic and geopolitical risks. This work provides estimates of possible changes of the sea ice concentration in the Arctic and the length of the open-water period, including outside the Russian EEZ in the 21st century, based on the CMIP6 climate model ensemble for moderate and aggressive scenarios of anthropogenic impact on the climate. In particular, it is shown that, as early as in the middle of the 21st century, the duration of ice-free navigation outside the Russian EEZ may exceed two and a half months.