Strategic Priorities and Foreign Economic Constraints of the Russian Aircraft Industry under International Economic Sanctions
摘要
The issues of foreign economic policy in the Russian aircraft manufacturing industry are examined. The main vectors, trends, and prospects for the development of international economic relations are analyzed. Strategic priorities and constraints faced by Russian aircraft manufacturing amid global turbulence are explored. The causes of the current situation are identified, primarily reflected in sanctions pressure and the disruption of external cooperative ties. A retrospective analysis of the formation of the domestic aircraft manufacturing industry demonstrates its dynamics from the crisis of the 1990s to the current period of forced import substitution and reorientation toward the domestic market and “friendly countries.” Fundamental shifts in foreign economic activity are identified, consisting in a focus on achieving technological independence from Western countries and a change in the geographical structure of cooperation. The scientific contribution of this work is as follows: (1) a retrospective analysis of the formation and development of the Russian aircraft industry is conducted, identifying key stages and turning points influencing the industry’s international competitiveness; (2) a detailed examination of the sanctions-related economic barriers hindering the development of the Russian aviation industry is provided, including restrictions on component supplies, certification difficulties, and political risks; (3) existing shortcomings of the state strategy for the development of the aircraft industry are assessed, highlighting the insufficient attention to partner diversification and the lag in the development of innovative solutions; (4) practical recommendations for improving public policy are proposed, aimed a increasing technological competencies, accelerating import substitution, and strengthening international partnerships with “friendly countries”; (5) scenarios for the development of the Russian aviation industry in the short and medium terms are developed, taking into account changes in the external environment and internal factors. These results are valuable for researchers, managers, and business representatives working on modernization and expansion of international contacts in the Russian aircraft industry. The barriers preventing Russian manufacturers from entering the global market are examined, including political risks, intensified competition in potential markets, technological blockade, and international certification barriers. Alongside the negative factors, emerging opportunities for the national aviation industry are identified, such as the stimulation of domestic sectoral competencies, rapid entry into niche markets of developing countries, and strengthened cooperation within BRICS+ and the EAEU. In addition, it is concluded that particular attention should be paid to mastering the full production cycle of aircraft equipment, as well as after-sales service and maintenance. The conclusions outline two scenarios for the probable development of the aviation industry in the medium term: a baseline and an optimistic scenario. The paper formulates possible solutions to the identified challenges, including measures to accelerate R&D, retain highly qualified specialists, and harmonize standards with partners in the Asia-Pacific region. The article will be of interest to researchers, specialists in aircraft manufacturing and international business organization, as well as company executives seeking a comprehensive understanding of the prospects and challenges of aircraft manufacturing in foreign markets.