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<p>This study developed a consumption-endogenous input–output analysis framework and a novel counterfactual structural decomposition analysis (SDA) framework to assess the economic, social, and environmental effects of the 2020 decline in foreign tourists due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The results show a pandemic-induced loss of 33 million tourists, resulting in 3.44 trillion JPY in value-added losses, employment declines for 868,976 people, and environmental benefits of an 11.6 Mt-CO<sub>2</sub> emissions reduction. Sectors hit the hardest include hotels, eating and drinking services, and wholesale and retail trade. The deterioration revealed a 100% reduction in value added from foreign visitors, whereas shifts in production contributed to a 3.6% increase in CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. This study recommends government intervention, focusing on stipends for sectors with the highest value-added losses and employment declines, as well as support funds for sectors that reduce environmental impact.</p>

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Triple bottom line analysis of the decline in foreign tourist demand in Japan due to the COVID-19 pandemic: Counterfactual structural decomposition approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月27日

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  • Yusuke Oga,
  • Shigemi Kagawa

摘要

This study developed a consumption-endogenous input–output analysis framework and a novel counterfactual structural decomposition analysis (SDA) framework to assess the economic, social, and environmental effects of the 2020 decline in foreign tourists due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The results show a pandemic-induced loss of 33 million tourists, resulting in 3.44 trillion JPY in value-added losses, employment declines for 868,976 people, and environmental benefits of an 11.6 Mt-CO2 emissions reduction. Sectors hit the hardest include hotels, eating and drinking services, and wholesale and retail trade. The deterioration revealed a 100% reduction in value added from foreign visitors, whereas shifts in production contributed to a 3.6% increase in CO2 emissions. This study recommends government intervention, focusing on stipends for sectors with the highest value-added losses and employment declines, as well as support funds for sectors that reduce environmental impact.