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<p>Demographic changes, particularly long-term shifts and fluctuations in the size and age structure of potential student cohorts, pose significant challenges for universities. The declining numbers directly impact enrolment levels, funding mechanisms, and the long-term sustainability of higher education systems. Understanding demographic trends is crucial for strategic planning and adapting to changing patterns of student participation. In response to concerning demographic statistics and forecasts, this study explores the future trajectory of the Slovak university population up to 2040, employing two complementary projection models integrated with regional population forecasts. The cohort model estimates the future size of the domestic Slovak university student population by applying recent age- and sex-specific enrolment rates to projected population cohorts, while the Regional model estimates this population by applying recent region of origin enrolment rates to projected regional population cohorts. The study uses databases from the Statistical Office and the Centre of Scientific and Technical Information of the Slovak Republic. The reference period for analysing gross enrolment ratios by age and sex spans 2018–2022, while the cohort size outlook covers the years 2010–2022. Population development varies significantly across Slovak regions, with different population potentials for the higher education sector. Both models suggest a short-term decline until 2026, followed by a modest recovery, with the domestic student population increasing by ~4–6%, primarily due to the expansion of cohorts under 26. The cohort and regional models identify potential prospects for university cohorts in Slovakia and highlight the timing and scale of turnover after 2026. Incorporating demographic factors into projection models can support more timely and regionally differentiated planning responses in higher education. Understanding the declining university population in Slovakia requires a multidimensional analysis that considers not only demographic but also economic, political, and sociocultural factors. Slovak universities face challenges that require strategic responses and proactive approaches. Only in this way will they be able to adapt to changing demographic conditions while remaining relevant and competitive internationally.</p>

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Possible future outlook for sustainable higher education amidst demographic decline: modelling university population trends in Slovakia for the year 2040

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月30日

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  • Janetta Nestorová Dická,
  • Denisa Jacková

摘要

Demographic changes, particularly long-term shifts and fluctuations in the size and age structure of potential student cohorts, pose significant challenges for universities. The declining numbers directly impact enrolment levels, funding mechanisms, and the long-term sustainability of higher education systems. Understanding demographic trends is crucial for strategic planning and adapting to changing patterns of student participation. In response to concerning demographic statistics and forecasts, this study explores the future trajectory of the Slovak university population up to 2040, employing two complementary projection models integrated with regional population forecasts. The cohort model estimates the future size of the domestic Slovak university student population by applying recent age- and sex-specific enrolment rates to projected population cohorts, while the Regional model estimates this population by applying recent region of origin enrolment rates to projected regional population cohorts. The study uses databases from the Statistical Office and the Centre of Scientific and Technical Information of the Slovak Republic. The reference period for analysing gross enrolment ratios by age and sex spans 2018–2022, while the cohort size outlook covers the years 2010–2022. Population development varies significantly across Slovak regions, with different population potentials for the higher education sector. Both models suggest a short-term decline until 2026, followed by a modest recovery, with the domestic student population increasing by ~4–6%, primarily due to the expansion of cohorts under 26. The cohort and regional models identify potential prospects for university cohorts in Slovakia and highlight the timing and scale of turnover after 2026. Incorporating demographic factors into projection models can support more timely and regionally differentiated planning responses in higher education. Understanding the declining university population in Slovakia requires a multidimensional analysis that considers not only demographic but also economic, political, and sociocultural factors. Slovak universities face challenges that require strategic responses and proactive approaches. Only in this way will they be able to adapt to changing demographic conditions while remaining relevant and competitive internationally.