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<p>Semi-arid agro-pastoral systems in Central Tanzania face intensifying climate risks, yet localized evidence that links long-term climate signals, perceptions, and adaptation remains scarce. We applied a mixed-methods design in Bahi and Mpwapwa Districts, combining 41-year (1981–2021) meteorological records with a household survey (<i>n</i> = 305), key-informant interviews, and FGDs. Non-parametric trend tests (Mann-Kendall; Sen’s slope) show no statistically significant trend in total annual rainfall, despite intra-seasonal anomalies, whereas both maximum and minimum temperatures exhibit robust warming (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.0001), including during the October-April growing season. Notably, community perceptions diverge from the rainfall record-91% report declining rainfall while aligning with observed warming (86% report higher temperatures). Logistic regressions indicate that education, household size, farm size, access to weather information, and extension services significantly shape perception. Adaptation is widespread but uneven: crop rotation, conservation agriculture, intercropping, shifting planting dates, and drought-tolerant varieties are common, yet scalability is constrained by limited extension support, financial barriers, and land-use conflicts. We argue that thermal stress rather than secular rainfall decline is the dominant biophysical driver of risk, and that perceived rainfall “decline” likely reflects increased variability and timing uncertainty. Priorities include heat-risk management, seasonal forecast usability, and last-mile extension that tailors culturally embedded practices for scale.</p>

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Climate variability and change in semi-arid central Tanzania: Locally-based adaptation measures for enhancing agro-pastoral resilience

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月20日

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  • Samson Msilu,
  • Amos Majule,
  • Joseph Perfect-Mrema

摘要

Semi-arid agro-pastoral systems in Central Tanzania face intensifying climate risks, yet localized evidence that links long-term climate signals, perceptions, and adaptation remains scarce. We applied a mixed-methods design in Bahi and Mpwapwa Districts, combining 41-year (1981–2021) meteorological records with a household survey (n = 305), key-informant interviews, and FGDs. Non-parametric trend tests (Mann-Kendall; Sen’s slope) show no statistically significant trend in total annual rainfall, despite intra-seasonal anomalies, whereas both maximum and minimum temperatures exhibit robust warming (p < 0.0001), including during the October-April growing season. Notably, community perceptions diverge from the rainfall record-91% report declining rainfall while aligning with observed warming (86% report higher temperatures). Logistic regressions indicate that education, household size, farm size, access to weather information, and extension services significantly shape perception. Adaptation is widespread but uneven: crop rotation, conservation agriculture, intercropping, shifting planting dates, and drought-tolerant varieties are common, yet scalability is constrained by limited extension support, financial barriers, and land-use conflicts. We argue that thermal stress rather than secular rainfall decline is the dominant biophysical driver of risk, and that perceived rainfall “decline” likely reflects increased variability and timing uncertainty. Priorities include heat-risk management, seasonal forecast usability, and last-mile extension that tailors culturally embedded practices for scale.