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<p>As the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East shifts, China is positioning itself as a key player, challenging the traditional dominance of powers like the United States. This article examines how artificial intelligence (AI) has become a central instrument of geopolitical competition, focusing on China’s role in the Middle East and its engagement with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The study addresses the question: How do Gulf states employ AI to hedge between US technological leadership and China’s infrastructural pull, and what does this reveal about shifting regional power dynamics? Applying a qualitative comparative case study of Saudi Vision 2030 and the UAE’s AI Strategy 2031, and drawing on the conceptual framework of techno-authoritarian alignment (TAA), hedging, and strategic coupling, the article argues that Gulf states are not passive arenas of rivalry but active agents shaping a hybrid digital order. The study finds that Gulf states adopt a dual-track approach, using US technologies for advanced computing and cloud systems while relying on Chinese infrastructure for more practical and sovereignty-sensitive needs. The implications suggest that China’s ambitions are tempered by competition from other global powers, making the Middle East a critical battleground for AI-driven influence in the years to come.</p>

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Shifting sands, rising dragon: a geopolitical analysis of China’s strategic hedging and AI wedging in the Middle East

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月22日

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  • Riya Sultana,
  • Ronen A. Cohen

摘要

As the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East shifts, China is positioning itself as a key player, challenging the traditional dominance of powers like the United States. This article examines how artificial intelligence (AI) has become a central instrument of geopolitical competition, focusing on China’s role in the Middle East and its engagement with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The study addresses the question: How do Gulf states employ AI to hedge between US technological leadership and China’s infrastructural pull, and what does this reveal about shifting regional power dynamics? Applying a qualitative comparative case study of Saudi Vision 2030 and the UAE’s AI Strategy 2031, and drawing on the conceptual framework of techno-authoritarian alignment (TAA), hedging, and strategic coupling, the article argues that Gulf states are not passive arenas of rivalry but active agents shaping a hybrid digital order. The study finds that Gulf states adopt a dual-track approach, using US technologies for advanced computing and cloud systems while relying on Chinese infrastructure for more practical and sovereignty-sensitive needs. The implications suggest that China’s ambitions are tempered by competition from other global powers, making the Middle East a critical battleground for AI-driven influence in the years to come.