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<p>This study examines the relationship between macroeconomic drivers and environmental outcomes, with a specific focus on China over the period 1990–2023. The research investigates how trade openness, structural transformation, and government effectiveness influence coal usage, energy depletion costs, and education spending, and how these factors ultimately impact CO₂ emissions and energy intensity. Using a multi-stage analytical approach, including penalized regressions (LASSO, Ridge), causal-forest analysis, and Gaussian process modelling, we uncover a multistage serial mediation pathway that identifies the moderating role of R&amp;D investment. Our key findings reveal that at low levels of R&amp;D investment, education spending correlates with rising CO₂ emissions and energy intensity. However, once R&amp;D investment exceeds 2.0% of GDP, education spending significantly reduces both emissions and energy intensity. This study contributes to Environmental Kuznets Curve theory by integrating resource-depletion dynamics and fiscal reactions, while refining innovation-threshold models by establishing precise boundary conditions for sustainable growth. The study provides actionable policy implications, advocating for governments to promote R&amp;D investment and align education spending with innovation goals to achieve sustainable environmental outcomes.</p>

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China’s energy transition through a resource–fiscal–environmental lens: economic drivers and R&D threshold mediation

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月19日

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  • Qian He,
  • Ying Jin,
  • Chen Chen,
  • Nan Liu

摘要

This study examines the relationship between macroeconomic drivers and environmental outcomes, with a specific focus on China over the period 1990–2023. The research investigates how trade openness, structural transformation, and government effectiveness influence coal usage, energy depletion costs, and education spending, and how these factors ultimately impact CO₂ emissions and energy intensity. Using a multi-stage analytical approach, including penalized regressions (LASSO, Ridge), causal-forest analysis, and Gaussian process modelling, we uncover a multistage serial mediation pathway that identifies the moderating role of R&D investment. Our key findings reveal that at low levels of R&D investment, education spending correlates with rising CO₂ emissions and energy intensity. However, once R&D investment exceeds 2.0% of GDP, education spending significantly reduces both emissions and energy intensity. This study contributes to Environmental Kuznets Curve theory by integrating resource-depletion dynamics and fiscal reactions, while refining innovation-threshold models by establishing precise boundary conditions for sustainable growth. The study provides actionable policy implications, advocating for governments to promote R&D investment and align education spending with innovation goals to achieve sustainable environmental outcomes.