<p>This study examined how the stock market responded to the assembly elections in India in 2024 by examining market trends both before and after the election results. Additionally, to find trends and deviations in the way the market has responded to political developments and examines market volatility over the election cycles of 2014, 2019 and 2024. The Event Method is used in this study to examine stock price movements and trading activity on election days. This volatility trend analysis is evaluated by comparing the market behaviour in the election cycles of 2014, 2019 and 2024 using statistical tools like the standard deviation and the VIX index. The NSE and the Indian Election Commission provided the data. The 2024 election results cause notable changes in trade volumes and stock prices among other significant stock market reactions. The volatility of different market cycles is shown through comparative analysis which also highlights recurring trends and unusual anomalies. The focus is on important variables that provide insights into investor sentiment and drive these market actions. For analysts, lawmakers and investors, the findings offer valuable information about risk management in relation to political events. This will enhance decision-making, and reduce risk if one has a better grasp of the patterns in market volatility during elections. By focusing on assembly elections which have gotten less attention than general elections this study closes a knowledge gap. Comparing multiple election cycles, the study offers a comprehensive understanding about the response of Indian market pertaining to political developments and a strong basis for future research as well.</p>

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Election waves and market ripples: decoding stock market reactions to India’s 2024 assembly elections

  • Richa Goel,
  • Anindita Bhattacharjee,
  • Tilottama Singh,
  • Manleenjot Kaur

摘要

This study examined how the stock market responded to the assembly elections in India in 2024 by examining market trends both before and after the election results. Additionally, to find trends and deviations in the way the market has responded to political developments and examines market volatility over the election cycles of 2014, 2019 and 2024. The Event Method is used in this study to examine stock price movements and trading activity on election days. This volatility trend analysis is evaluated by comparing the market behaviour in the election cycles of 2014, 2019 and 2024 using statistical tools like the standard deviation and the VIX index. The NSE and the Indian Election Commission provided the data. The 2024 election results cause notable changes in trade volumes and stock prices among other significant stock market reactions. The volatility of different market cycles is shown through comparative analysis which also highlights recurring trends and unusual anomalies. The focus is on important variables that provide insights into investor sentiment and drive these market actions. For analysts, lawmakers and investors, the findings offer valuable information about risk management in relation to political events. This will enhance decision-making, and reduce risk if one has a better grasp of the patterns in market volatility during elections. By focusing on assembly elections which have gotten less attention than general elections this study closes a knowledge gap. Comparing multiple election cycles, the study offers a comprehensive understanding about the response of Indian market pertaining to political developments and a strong basis for future research as well.