<p>In the context of global climate change mitigation and carbon neutrality goals, climate policy uncertainty constitutes a significant factor influencing the trajectory of China’s energy transition. Therefore, this study takes the data from January 2000 to December 2024 as the research sample, employs the BMA method to identify and test the importance of the various factors that may affect China’s energy transition, and systematically analyzes the dynamic impacts of climate policy uncertainty on energy transition with the help of the ARDL model. The results of the study show: (1) Climate policy uncertainty exerts a significant negative impact on energy transition, with stronger inhibitory effects in the short term than in the long term. This finding remains robust after a series of rigorous sensitivity tests. (2) Bayesian model averaging analysis indicates that climate policy uncertainty exhibits a high relative importance among various determinants influencing energy transition, with a posterior inclusion probability of 68.5%. (3) The ARDL estimation results further reveal that while climate policy uncertainty directly inhibits energy transition, it indirectly promotes the transition by reinforcing government environmental regulations and elevating public environmental awareness, thereby creating a partial “offset effect”. Accordingly, the findings of this study can provide theoretical support and practical guidance for relevant energy enterprises to formulate and implement strategies to adapt to the dynamic environment. At the same time, it enriches existing models and methodologies to a certain extent, further deepening the exploration of the mechanism linking climate policy uncertainty and energy transition. This provides the necessary theory to inform the development of policies and strategies that promote a low-carbon transition and development.</p>