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<p>The urban heat island effect has significantly impacted people’s production and daily lives. This study explores a methodology for evaluating the degree of heat island evolution in future land use scenarios. This study established four different land-use scenarios for Beijing in 2030: normal development (Normal), cold island development (CIDS), expansion development (ED) and integrated development scenario (ID). A model incorporating stepwise multiple linear regression analysis, morphological spatial pattern analysis, resistance surface analysis, and cold island pattern analysis was applied to evaluate the UHI effect in each scenario. The results indicate that waterbodies and forests have minimal contributions to temperature, which are classified as sink landscapes. In 2020, the total area of the Cold Island Core Source (CICS) in Beijing was 3648.41 km², with a resistance surface coefficient of 0.56 and a Cold Island Structural Index of 0.257. For future land use scenario heat island effect assessments, the order of strength is: ED &gt; Normal &gt; ID &gt; Real in 2020 &gt; CICS. The CICS scenario represents the most suitable development path for mitigating the urban heat island effect in Beijing. These findings could inform the sustainable planning of urban areas in future.</p>

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Exploration of heat island effect assessment methods for future land simulation scenarios: a case study of Beijing

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月6日

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  • Zitao Yang,
  • Li Tian,
  • Lifeng Zhao

摘要

The urban heat island effect has significantly impacted people’s production and daily lives. This study explores a methodology for evaluating the degree of heat island evolution in future land use scenarios. This study established four different land-use scenarios for Beijing in 2030: normal development (Normal), cold island development (CIDS), expansion development (ED) and integrated development scenario (ID). A model incorporating stepwise multiple linear regression analysis, morphological spatial pattern analysis, resistance surface analysis, and cold island pattern analysis was applied to evaluate the UHI effect in each scenario. The results indicate that waterbodies and forests have minimal contributions to temperature, which are classified as sink landscapes. In 2020, the total area of the Cold Island Core Source (CICS) in Beijing was 3648.41 km², with a resistance surface coefficient of 0.56 and a Cold Island Structural Index of 0.257. For future land use scenario heat island effect assessments, the order of strength is: ED > Normal > ID > Real in 2020 > CICS. The CICS scenario represents the most suitable development path for mitigating the urban heat island effect in Beijing. These findings could inform the sustainable planning of urban areas in future.