<p>Turkey’s diplomatic maneuverability in an evolving multipolar world order is examined through an exploratory computational experiment inspired by game theoretic concepts. Drawing on Turkish foreign policy during 2002–2023 and grounded in strategic interaction theory, four distinct strategic approaches are analyzed: Western-oriented, Eastern-oriented, balanced multi-directional, and dynamic pragmatic strategies. A computational model that incorporates policy stance alignment, power differentials, and historical inflection points simulates the evolution of diplomatic relationships over quarterly periods. Simulation results across 1000 Monte Carlo iterations for each strategy reveal that balanced multi-directional diplomacy achieves superior diplomatic effectiveness (0.942) while maintaining stable relationships across competing power centers. The dynamic pragmatic approach demonstrates comparable effectiveness (0.940) with minimal polarization (0.012). These results suggest that structural realist assumptions about the necessity of precise alignment in multipolar systems may benefit from reconsideration, particularly with respect to middle-power strategic options. Turkey’s historical tradition of multipolar positioning, extending from Ottoman diplomatic statecraft to contemporary foreign policy, provides a distinctive context for understanding diplomatic maneuverability. Evidence suggests that multipolarity may create opportunities for middle power diplomacy, particularly for states with geographic positioning and diplomatic capacity to maintain engagement across multiple power centers.</p>

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Turkey’s Diplomatic Maneuverability in a Multipolar World Order: A system Dynamic Simulation

  • Esra Merve Boztosun-Çalışkan

摘要

Turkey’s diplomatic maneuverability in an evolving multipolar world order is examined through an exploratory computational experiment inspired by game theoretic concepts. Drawing on Turkish foreign policy during 2002–2023 and grounded in strategic interaction theory, four distinct strategic approaches are analyzed: Western-oriented, Eastern-oriented, balanced multi-directional, and dynamic pragmatic strategies. A computational model that incorporates policy stance alignment, power differentials, and historical inflection points simulates the evolution of diplomatic relationships over quarterly periods. Simulation results across 1000 Monte Carlo iterations for each strategy reveal that balanced multi-directional diplomacy achieves superior diplomatic effectiveness (0.942) while maintaining stable relationships across competing power centers. The dynamic pragmatic approach demonstrates comparable effectiveness (0.940) with minimal polarization (0.012). These results suggest that structural realist assumptions about the necessity of precise alignment in multipolar systems may benefit from reconsideration, particularly with respect to middle-power strategic options. Turkey’s historical tradition of multipolar positioning, extending from Ottoman diplomatic statecraft to contemporary foreign policy, provides a distinctive context for understanding diplomatic maneuverability. Evidence suggests that multipolarity may create opportunities for middle power diplomacy, particularly for states with geographic positioning and diplomatic capacity to maintain engagement across multiple power centers.