<p>This paper explores the role of employee disclosures of future business outlook in predicting a firm’s cessation as a going concern. Using a large sample from 2012 to 2021, we find that employee outlook provides explanatory power in predicting firm bankruptcy. The predictive ability of employee outlook is incremental to financial ratios, market-based variables, and other stakeholders’ disclosures. Our path analysis shows that employee outlook is a mediating variable that is influenced by financial and market-based variables and in turn, impacts firm bankruptcy. We also find stronger predictive ability of employee outlook when reviews are given by current employees, when reviews aggregate the opinions from a larger group of employees and from more diverse employees, and when reviews are provided by non-unionized employees. Furthermore, we find that the current employee outlook predicts firm bankruptcy in the subsequent two and three years.</p>

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Can employee disclosures of future business outlook predict the firm’s cessation as a going concern?

  • Xiaoyan Cheng,
  • Ming Yuan

摘要

This paper explores the role of employee disclosures of future business outlook in predicting a firm’s cessation as a going concern. Using a large sample from 2012 to 2021, we find that employee outlook provides explanatory power in predicting firm bankruptcy. The predictive ability of employee outlook is incremental to financial ratios, market-based variables, and other stakeholders’ disclosures. Our path analysis shows that employee outlook is a mediating variable that is influenced by financial and market-based variables and in turn, impacts firm bankruptcy. We also find stronger predictive ability of employee outlook when reviews are given by current employees, when reviews aggregate the opinions from a larger group of employees and from more diverse employees, and when reviews are provided by non-unionized employees. Furthermore, we find that the current employee outlook predicts firm bankruptcy in the subsequent two and three years.