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<p>This paper documents stylized facts about the “Great Reallocation” in US supply chain trade following the 2018–2019 tariff shocks and the April 2025 Liberation Day announcements. We find that: (i) The USA has decoupled from China but not from the world overall. (ii) US imports diversified mainly among its top 20 partners, rather than expanding to new source countries. (iii) Local linear projections confirm ongoing declines in China’s import shares, with compensating increases from Vietnam, Mexico, and Taiwan. (iv) Most of this shift occurred along the product-level intensive margin, though extensive margin adjustments became more pronounced for Vietnam and India from 2021 to 2024. (v) After a period of “wait and see,” the decline in import shares from China spread to contract-intensive and relationship-sticky goods by 2021–2024. (vi) Trade reallocation has already accelerated after Liberation Day, in favor of trade partners facing lower additional tariffs and with geographically proximate supply networks. Together, these findings show that the US-China tariff shocks have unwound the US’ sourcing from China back to where it stood at the time of China’s WTO accession.</p>

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An Anatomy of the Great Reallocation in US Supply Chain Trade

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月21日

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  • Laura Alfaro,
  • Davin Chor

摘要

This paper documents stylized facts about the “Great Reallocation” in US supply chain trade following the 2018–2019 tariff shocks and the April 2025 Liberation Day announcements. We find that: (i) The USA has decoupled from China but not from the world overall. (ii) US imports diversified mainly among its top 20 partners, rather than expanding to new source countries. (iii) Local linear projections confirm ongoing declines in China’s import shares, with compensating increases from Vietnam, Mexico, and Taiwan. (iv) Most of this shift occurred along the product-level intensive margin, though extensive margin adjustments became more pronounced for Vietnam and India from 2021 to 2024. (v) After a period of “wait and see,” the decline in import shares from China spread to contract-intensive and relationship-sticky goods by 2021–2024. (vi) Trade reallocation has already accelerated after Liberation Day, in favor of trade partners facing lower additional tariffs and with geographically proximate supply networks. Together, these findings show that the US-China tariff shocks have unwound the US’ sourcing from China back to where it stood at the time of China’s WTO accession.