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<p>Hunan Province, a key economic and education hub of central China, is confronting a looming crisis in higher education enrollment due to the ongoing decline in birth rates. Despite the importance of this issue, existing literature largely overlooks region-specific challenges, particularly at the provincial level in China, creating a gap in understanding the localized impacts of demographic shifts on higher education. This study addresses this gap by examining the long-term implications of these shifts on the sustainability of higher education in Hunan, a province experiencing a notable reduction in its youth population. Using data from the Seventh Population Census, the study employs the cohort component method to forecast population changes from 2025 to 2050, considering various fertility scenarios. The results indicate a sharp decline in the 18-22 age group, leading to a severe shortage of traditional higher education students by 2039. Additionally, adult and graduate education also faces increasing risks due to insufficient development of educational demand among the older population. The study proposes strategies and pathways such as optimizing the educational structure, promoting lifelong learning, and adopting differentiated approaches for higher education institutions. These strategies are crucial for maintaining Hunan’s higher education system amidst demographic changes.</p>

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Evaluating the Higher Education Enrollment Crisis in Hunan Province, China: Sustainable Strategies and Pathways Amidst Declining Birth Rates

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月18日

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  • Xianghua Yue,
  • Shahzad Khan Durrani,
  • Runfa Li

摘要

Hunan Province, a key economic and education hub of central China, is confronting a looming crisis in higher education enrollment due to the ongoing decline in birth rates. Despite the importance of this issue, existing literature largely overlooks region-specific challenges, particularly at the provincial level in China, creating a gap in understanding the localized impacts of demographic shifts on higher education. This study addresses this gap by examining the long-term implications of these shifts on the sustainability of higher education in Hunan, a province experiencing a notable reduction in its youth population. Using data from the Seventh Population Census, the study employs the cohort component method to forecast population changes from 2025 to 2050, considering various fertility scenarios. The results indicate a sharp decline in the 18-22 age group, leading to a severe shortage of traditional higher education students by 2039. Additionally, adult and graduate education also faces increasing risks due to insufficient development of educational demand among the older population. The study proposes strategies and pathways such as optimizing the educational structure, promoting lifelong learning, and adopting differentiated approaches for higher education institutions. These strategies are crucial for maintaining Hunan’s higher education system amidst demographic changes.