Decarbonization Planning for High-Emitting Facilities in South Africa: A Multi-dimensional Framework
摘要
This article presents a multi-dimensional framework for facility-level decarbonization planning, with a focus on high-emitting industries that are critical to the complex value chains and economies in which they are situated. The framework is designed to complement traditional techno-economic models and is designed to assist policymakers and planners navigate the interconnected political, environmental, social, technological, economic, and legal dimensions of high-emitting industrial facilities and their value chains. In so doing, it enables the exploration of synergies and trade-offs when driving decarbonization towards meeting climate goals, while still allowing for a managed transition of economies and societies. The approach draws on insights from complexity thinking and multi-criteria analysis literature in its development. The framework is demonstrated through application to Sasol’s Secunda and Sasolburg facilities – two of South Africa’s largest industrial sources of greenhouse gas emissions and critical components of the country’s petrochemical value chain. By mapping their upstream and downstream linkages, stakeholder dynamics, and potential decarbonization pathways from different perspectives, the analysis highlights key transition tipping points, including shifts in global liquid fuel demand and the evolution of green hydrogen markets, the socioeconomic dependencies of local communities and the role of market demand in downstream value chains. The findings underscore the need for adaptive and system-aware policymaking that anticipates non-linear change and builds resilience under uncertainty. For South Africa, this entails aligning policies across departments, coordinating investment across sectors, and supporting communities and workers to ensure that the decarbonization of major facilities contributes to a just and sustainable transition.