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<p>U.S. Section&#xa0;232/301 tariffs since 2018 have tested the strategic resilience of advanced economies, specifically their ability to absorb shocks, re-route production, and counter economic coercion without forfeiting autonomy. This article explains why six OECD states—Germany, France, Poland, South Korea, Mexico, and Australia—employed divergent response mixes and what the 2025 tariff cycle implies for their policies. Building on Global-Value-Chain analytics, Complex-Interdependence theory, and Mundell’s open economy macroeconomics, the study operationalizes strategic resilience through four structural drivers of trade dependence, strategic autonomy, state capacity, and international coordination consistently across six OECD cases. A structured, focused comparison combines archival documents, trade data, and process tracing of key policy episodes (2018-–2024), supplemented by forward-looking scenarios to 2025. High-capacity EU members (Germany, France) paired collective retaliation and WTO litigation; low-capacity Poland relied on EU shields alone. South Korea leveraged monetary autonomy and supply-chain relocation; Mexico bargained for quota exemptions; Australia used alliance signaling. The configuration best explains variation—not the level—of the four drivers. Looking to 2025, effective strategies will blend asset-backed bargaining, legal innovation, and security-economic trade-offs, turning critical inputs (such as semiconductors, critical minerals, and near-shoring hubs) into geopolitical currency. Resilience now requires re-composing the four drivers rather than escalating tariffs, while WTO reform and bloc-level instruments remain vital for smaller states. Future research should couple firm-level panels with dynamic macro models to quantify these qualitative insights.</p>

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Strategic resilience in the OECD: tariff politics and the new trade governance

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月14日

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  • Xiuli Chen,
  • Joohan Ryoo

摘要

U.S. Section 232/301 tariffs since 2018 have tested the strategic resilience of advanced economies, specifically their ability to absorb shocks, re-route production, and counter economic coercion without forfeiting autonomy. This article explains why six OECD states—Germany, France, Poland, South Korea, Mexico, and Australia—employed divergent response mixes and what the 2025 tariff cycle implies for their policies. Building on Global-Value-Chain analytics, Complex-Interdependence theory, and Mundell’s open economy macroeconomics, the study operationalizes strategic resilience through four structural drivers of trade dependence, strategic autonomy, state capacity, and international coordination consistently across six OECD cases. A structured, focused comparison combines archival documents, trade data, and process tracing of key policy episodes (2018-–2024), supplemented by forward-looking scenarios to 2025. High-capacity EU members (Germany, France) paired collective retaliation and WTO litigation; low-capacity Poland relied on EU shields alone. South Korea leveraged monetary autonomy and supply-chain relocation; Mexico bargained for quota exemptions; Australia used alliance signaling. The configuration best explains variation—not the level—of the four drivers. Looking to 2025, effective strategies will blend asset-backed bargaining, legal innovation, and security-economic trade-offs, turning critical inputs (such as semiconductors, critical minerals, and near-shoring hubs) into geopolitical currency. Resilience now requires re-composing the four drivers rather than escalating tariffs, while WTO reform and bloc-level instruments remain vital for smaller states. Future research should couple firm-level panels with dynamic macro models to quantify these qualitative insights.