The Dynamics of Global Value Chain Participation and Per Capita CO2 Emissions: Evidence from BRICS + 4 Countries
摘要
The BRICS group expanded its membership to accelerate economic recovery and establish a solid value chain. Taking 2000–2018 panel data for the “BRICS + 4” countries (Egypt, Iran, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia), this study investigates the effects of global value chain (GVC) participation modes on per capita CO2 emissions using an extended panel smooth-transition regression model. The results show that forward participation exhibits an N-shaped relationship with per capita CO₂ emissions, driven by scale and technique effects that increase emissions and a composition effect that reduces them. In contrast, backward participation significantly increases carbon emissions at relatively low and high levels, primarily due to composition and technique effects. Moreover, cross-country heterogeneity is evident, with some BRICS + 4 economies showing stronger emission effects from backward than forward participation. Nevertheless, potential reverse causality between carbon emissions and GVC participation remains a limitation of this study.