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<p>This study outlines and empirically explores two theoretical pathways that may link a shared, population-level shock to individual distress. Pathway 1, the individual hypothesis, posits that individual distress is primarily a function of individual stressful experiences resulting from the shared shock. Pathway 2, the structural hypothesis, posits that the shared shock is linked to a corollary shared experience of distress. We empirically explored these pathways within the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We used the Understanding Coronavirus in America longitudinal panel (<i>N</i> = 6909, 58,820 observations) and multilevel linear spline models and tested whether individual pandemic stressors (illness, unemployment, and school closure) could account for individual distress trajectories. Results suggested that trajectories did not differ by individual experience of pandemic stressors (<i>p</i>-values range 0.11–0.76). Our results provide proof-of-concept evidence for the structural hypothesis and highlight how population-level factors may supersede individual differences in this context. These findings highlight the need for further work exploring how shared shocks can shape shared mental health impacts across the population. In a time of increasing division, increased attention to the structural conditions that unite rather than divide has the potential for meaningful public health impact.</p>

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Can a population-level shock cause individual distress beyond what individual experience can explain? Proof-of-concept and motivating evidence for the structural hypothesis for population health

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月5日

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  • Jessica Acolin,
  • Isaac C. Rhew,
  • Paul A. Fishman

摘要

This study outlines and empirically explores two theoretical pathways that may link a shared, population-level shock to individual distress. Pathway 1, the individual hypothesis, posits that individual distress is primarily a function of individual stressful experiences resulting from the shared shock. Pathway 2, the structural hypothesis, posits that the shared shock is linked to a corollary shared experience of distress. We empirically explored these pathways within the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We used the Understanding Coronavirus in America longitudinal panel (N = 6909, 58,820 observations) and multilevel linear spline models and tested whether individual pandemic stressors (illness, unemployment, and school closure) could account for individual distress trajectories. Results suggested that trajectories did not differ by individual experience of pandemic stressors (p-values range 0.11–0.76). Our results provide proof-of-concept evidence for the structural hypothesis and highlight how population-level factors may supersede individual differences in this context. These findings highlight the need for further work exploring how shared shocks can shape shared mental health impacts across the population. In a time of increasing division, increased attention to the structural conditions that unite rather than divide has the potential for meaningful public health impact.