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<p>Research on the consequences of compulsory voting often relies on a hypothetical question on what respondents would do if legislation were changed. It is well-known, however, that hypothetical questions are notoriously unreliable to predict actual behaviour partly because of social desirability. In the current analysis we report on the results of a four-wave electoral panel study conducted in 2024 in Belgium. During the first two waves of the panel, compulsory voting was still in place, while it was partially abolished for the final two waves. In the first wave of the panel, the standard hypothetical turnout question was included, and the analysis shows that answers to this question predicted quite accurately the reported turnout in wave 4. The overall conclusion of this benchmarking study, therefore, is that the hypothetical turnout question is a powerful predictor of reported voter turnout.</p>

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Between intentions and acts: How valid is the hypothetical turnout question? A benchmarking test on abolishing compulsory voting

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月28日

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  • Dieter Stiers,
  • Marc Hooghe

摘要

Research on the consequences of compulsory voting often relies on a hypothetical question on what respondents would do if legislation were changed. It is well-known, however, that hypothetical questions are notoriously unreliable to predict actual behaviour partly because of social desirability. In the current analysis we report on the results of a four-wave electoral panel study conducted in 2024 in Belgium. During the first two waves of the panel, compulsory voting was still in place, while it was partially abolished for the final two waves. In the first wave of the panel, the standard hypothetical turnout question was included, and the analysis shows that answers to this question predicted quite accurately the reported turnout in wave 4. The overall conclusion of this benchmarking study, therefore, is that the hypothetical turnout question is a powerful predictor of reported voter turnout.