This study explores the impact of positive COVID-19-related investor sentiment—measured through vaccine-related Google search activity—on global economic uncertainty, offering a novel perspective compared to the prevailing focus on negative sentiment. We construct two alternative high-frequency sentiment indices (COVID19+), employing both simple averaging and principal component analysis, to capture optimism associated with the vaccine rollout. Using a Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework on daily world-level data from January 2020 to May 2021, we assess the dynamic relationship between sentiment and multiple forward-looking proxies of economic uncertainty, namely the VIX, the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU), and a Twitter-based uncertainty index. Our empirical results reveal that positive sentiment shocks lead to a statistically significant and persistent reduction in uncertainty across all measures, consistent with the confidence channel in belief-driven business cycle theory. Robustness checks, including alternative lag specifications and Bayesian VAR estimation, confirm the stability of these results. From a risk management perspective, the findings underscore the strategic value of integrating real-time sentiment monitoring into policy frameworks, stress-testing models, and asset allocation strategies. By demonstrating that positive sentiment can mitigate uncertainty during crises, this research provides new insights into sentiment-driven economic dynamics and offers actionable guidance for policymakers and market participants aiming to enhance resilience in the face of systemic shocks.Dimitrios Anastasiou is an Assistant Professor in Corporate Finance at the Department of Business Administration at the Athens University of Economics and Business (AUEB). Before joining AUEB, he also served as a Senior Research Economist at Alpha Bank, Adjunct Lecturer at AUEB, and Research Assistant at AbbVie Pharmaceuticals.His main research interests lie in empirical banking, corporate finance, SME finance, and behavioral finance. His research work has been presented at several international academic conferences as well as central banks. He has published extensively with over 30 publications in refereed international journals and book chapters in collective volumes. His research has been published in journals such as the Risk Analysis, Journal of International Money and Finance, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, and Journal of Business Research. Finally, he has been ranked in the top 7% of academics in Finance worldwide over the past decade, according to IDEAS RePEc.Antonis Ballis is an Associate Professor of Financial Technology at Aston University (UK), as well as the Director of the M.Sc. Finance programme. He holds a PhD from the Athens University of Economics and Business (AUEB) with a full scholarship from the State Scholarship Foundation (IKY) for his study on the economics of cryptocurrencies (2021), a Master's degree (M. Sc.) in Applied Economics and Data Analysis from the University of Patras (2016) and a B.Sc. from the Department of Economic Science of the Athens University of Economics and Business (2014). His main research areas are Cryptocurrency Economics and Behavioural Finance. His articles have been published in international journals, like Financial Stability, Risk Analysis, International Journal of Finance & Economics. Finance Research Letters etc. and his studies have been presented at international conferences.Christos Kallandranis has significant teaching, research, and consulting experience. He currently works as an Associate Professor of Finance at the University of West Attica. Previously, he’s been faculty member at Regent’s University London in the United Kingdom, Marconi University in Rome, Italy, and at the Hellenic Open University. He has also taught at the Department of Economics at the University of Patras and at the Open University of Cyprus. He has also been an external examiner and evaluator of BA and MSc programs at many international universities. His research focuses on applied finance and economics, with a particular emphasis on loan markets and SMEs. His research has been published in internationally recognized academic journals like Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Journal of Business Research, Risk Analysis, European Journal of Political Economy etc. and presented at international conferences. Finally, he has served as a reviewer for many indexed academic journals and as an editor for different publishing houses.Ioannis Vlassas holds a BA from the Department of Business Administration of the Athens University of Economics and Business and an Msc in Economics from the same university. Currently, he is a PhD Candidate at the Department of Accounting and Finance of the University of West Attica. His research focus is on the access to bank finance of SMEs. He has presented his work in scientific conferences and has published papers in international scientific journals, like Journal of Small Business Management, Journal of Banking Regulations, Journal of Asian Business Studies etc.

Positive COVID-19 related sentiment, economic uncertainty & risk management implications

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发表日期：

2025年12月18日

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Dimitris Anastasiou,
Antonis Ballis,
Christos Kallandranis,
Ioannis Vlassas

摘要

This study explores the impact of positive COVID-19-related investor sentiment—measured through vaccine-related Google search activity—on global economic uncertainty, offering a novel perspective compared to the prevailing focus on negative sentiment. We construct two alternative high-frequency sentiment indices (COVID19+), employing both simple averaging and principal component analysis, to capture optimism associated with the vaccine rollout. Using a Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework on daily world-level data from January 2020 to May 2021, we assess the dynamic relationship between sentiment and multiple forward-looking proxies of economic uncertainty, namely the VIX, the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU), and a Twitter-based uncertainty index. Our empirical results reveal that positive sentiment shocks lead to a statistically significant and persistent reduction in uncertainty across all measures, consistent with the confidence channel in belief-driven business cycle theory. Robustness checks, including alternative lag specifications and Bayesian VAR estimation, confirm the stability of these results. From a risk management perspective, the findings underscore the strategic value of integrating real-time sentiment monitoring into policy frameworks, stress-testing models, and asset allocation strategies. By demonstrating that positive sentiment can mitigate uncertainty during crises, this research provides new insights into sentiment-driven economic dynamics and offers actionable guidance for policymakers and market participants aiming to enhance resilience in the face of systemic shocks.

Dimitrios Anastasiou is an Assistant Professor in Corporate Finance at the Department of Business Administration at the Athens University of Economics and Business (AUEB). Before joining AUEB, he also served as a Senior Research Economist at Alpha Bank, Adjunct Lecturer at AUEB, and Research Assistant at AbbVie Pharmaceuticals.His main research interests lie in empirical banking, corporate finance, SME finance, and behavioral finance. His research work has been presented at several international academic conferences as well as central banks. He has published extensively with over 30 publications in refereed international journals and book chapters in collective volumes. His research has been published in journals such as the Risk Analysis, Journal of International Money and Finance, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, and Journal of Business Research. Finally, he has been ranked in the top 7% of academics in Finance worldwide over the past decade, according to IDEAS RePEc.

Antonis Ballis is an Associate Professor of Financial Technology at Aston University (UK), as well as the Director of the M.Sc. Finance programme. He holds a PhD from the Athens University of Economics and Business (AUEB) with a full scholarship from the State Scholarship Foundation (IKY) for his study on the economics of cryptocurrencies (2021), a Master's degree (M. Sc.) in Applied Economics and Data Analysis from the University of Patras (2016) and a B.Sc. from the Department of Economic Science of the Athens University of Economics and Business (2014). His main research areas are Cryptocurrency Economics and Behavioural Finance. His articles have been published in international journals, like Financial Stability, Risk Analysis, International Journal of Finance & Economics. Finance Research Letters etc. and his studies have been presented at international conferences.

Christos Kallandranis has significant teaching, research, and consulting experience. He currently works as an Associate Professor of Finance at the University of West Attica. Previously, he’s been faculty member at Regent’s University London in the United Kingdom, Marconi University in Rome, Italy, and at the Hellenic Open University. He has also taught at the Department of Economics at the University of Patras and at the Open University of Cyprus. He has also been an external examiner and evaluator of BA and MSc programs at many international universities. His research focuses on applied finance and economics, with a particular emphasis on loan markets and SMEs. His research has been published in internationally recognized academic journals like Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Journal of Business Research, Risk Analysis, European Journal of Political Economy etc. and presented at international conferences. Finally, he has served as a reviewer for many indexed academic journals and as an editor for different publishing houses.

Ioannis Vlassas holds a BA from the Department of Business Administration of the Athens University of Economics and Business and an Msc in Economics from the same university. Currently, he is a PhD Candidate at the Department of Accounting and Finance of the University of West Attica. His research focus is on the access to bank finance of SMEs. He has presented his work in scientific conferences and has published papers in international scientific journals, like Journal of Small Business Management, Journal of Banking Regulations, Journal of Asian Business Studies etc.