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<p>We often want to predict individual behavior under uncertainty in relevant decision-making settings based on the elicitation of individual uncertainty attitudes. This paper surveys different approaches to measure uncertainty preferences and studies that correlate measured preferences with decision-making behavior in different domains such as finance or insurance. We argue that the predictive power of elicited preferences in many studies is limited and suggest several potential ways forward for future research.</p>

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Measuring uncertainty preferences: what we know and what we need

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月12日

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  • Martin G. Kocher

摘要

We often want to predict individual behavior under uncertainty in relevant decision-making settings based on the elicitation of individual uncertainty attitudes. This paper surveys different approaches to measure uncertainty preferences and studies that correlate measured preferences with decision-making behavior in different domains such as finance or insurance. We argue that the predictive power of elicited preferences in many studies is limited and suggest several potential ways forward for future research.