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<p>Water stress, driven by growing human water demand and climate change, affects human well-being, depletes groundwater, and threatens the health of downstream ecosystems. Mitigating these impacts requires a clear understanding of the complex interplay of human-water-climate dynamics. Here, we present an integrated system approach to assess water stress in the severely water-stressed Yellow River Basin, covering the past 40 years and projecting scenarios until 2100. Our findings reveal extreme water stress in the basin during the 1980s–2000s, which later eased to severe levels due to improved water efficiency. However, severe water stress is not expected to be relieved before 2045 under our scenario analysis. Even under the most sustainable scenario, human water demand could exceed the severe water stress threshold by 22% (ranging from 6% to 40%) in 2100. Cross-system transformations, including enhanced water efficiency and sustainable agricultural practices, remain essential to reducing water stress in the basin.</p>

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Yellow River Basin water stress has eased but may persist without enhanced efficiency and sustainable agriculture

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月12日

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  • Lu Yu,
  • Xutong Wu,
  • Shan Sang,
  • Yan Li,
  • Changjia Li,
  • Quanliang Ye,
  • Olli Varis,
  • Bojie Fu,
  • Shuai Wang

摘要

Water stress, driven by growing human water demand and climate change, affects human well-being, depletes groundwater, and threatens the health of downstream ecosystems. Mitigating these impacts requires a clear understanding of the complex interplay of human-water-climate dynamics. Here, we present an integrated system approach to assess water stress in the severely water-stressed Yellow River Basin, covering the past 40 years and projecting scenarios until 2100. Our findings reveal extreme water stress in the basin during the 1980s–2000s, which later eased to severe levels due to improved water efficiency. However, severe water stress is not expected to be relieved before 2045 under our scenario analysis. Even under the most sustainable scenario, human water demand could exceed the severe water stress threshold by 22% (ranging from 6% to 40%) in 2100. Cross-system transformations, including enhanced water efficiency and sustainable agricultural practices, remain essential to reducing water stress in the basin.