Short-term environmental changes and respiratory syncytial virus infection in Chile
摘要
Understanding the seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is crucial for cost-effective seasonal RSV prophylaxis administration. The impact of short-term changes in air pollution and meteorological factors on RSV epidemics, particularly their spatial variations, remains unclear. We conducted a time-series analysis to investigate the association between short-term environmental changes and weekly RSV infection in Chile. Weekly data on the number of new laboratory RSV tests and confirmed RSV-positive cases, meteorological factors, and air pollutants were collected from 16 Chilean regions (2015–2018). We fitted a quasi-Poisson regression to evaluate the link between short-term environmental changes and RSV infection in each region. We utilized random effects meta-analyses to pool the region-specific estimates. Subgroup analyses were further conducted to assess variations by socio-economic and geographical context. Nationwide associations were observed between weekly average temperature and RSV activity, with a 1 °C increase being positively associated with an 8.2% (95% confidence interval: 0.87–0.97) decrease in RSV positivity at a lag of 3 weeks. In addition, we found significant positive nationwide associations between air pollutants, i.e., nitrogen dioxide (