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<p>The 2022 mpox outbreak led to a rapid case surge among men who have sex with men (MSM) in previously unaffected regions, followed by a sudden decline, whose drivers remain unclear. We developed a network model of mpox transmission among MSM based on sexual behaviour data, focusing on the Paris region epidemic. Our analysis tested three drivers for the decline: postexposure prophylaxis vaccination, immunity among highly active MSM and behavioural adaptations, either uniform in the population or based on individual risk factors. Behavioural changes adopted by 49% (95% confidence interval 47–51%) of MSM, regardless of risk factors, best explained the decline, preventing an estimated 68% (15–99%) of potential cases in summer 2022. To validate model predictions, we analysed data from the 2023 ERAS survey and found that 46% (45–48%) of MSM in the region reported reducing their number of sexual partners during that period—closely matching model estimates. In contrast, postexposure prophylaxis vaccination and immunity among highly active MSM were insufficient to halt the outbreak. Both model predictions and survey results underscore the role of widespread, spontaneous behavioural adaptations, regardless of risk profile, in driving the epidemic downturn. These findings highlight the importance of effective risk communication and community engagement in outbreak management.</p>

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Role of behaviour change in controlling the 2022 Paris mpox outbreak

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月21日

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  • Davide Maniscalco,
  • Olivier Robineau,
  • Pierre-Yves Boëlle,
  • Mattia Mazzoli,
  • Anne-Sophie Barret,
  • Emilie Chazelle,
  • Alexandra Mailles,
  • Harold Noël,
  • Arnaud Tarantola,
  • Annie Velter,
  • Laura Zanetti,
  • Vittoria Colizza

摘要

The 2022 mpox outbreak led to a rapid case surge among men who have sex with men (MSM) in previously unaffected regions, followed by a sudden decline, whose drivers remain unclear. We developed a network model of mpox transmission among MSM based on sexual behaviour data, focusing on the Paris region epidemic. Our analysis tested three drivers for the decline: postexposure prophylaxis vaccination, immunity among highly active MSM and behavioural adaptations, either uniform in the population or based on individual risk factors. Behavioural changes adopted by 49% (95% confidence interval 47–51%) of MSM, regardless of risk factors, best explained the decline, preventing an estimated 68% (15–99%) of potential cases in summer 2022. To validate model predictions, we analysed data from the 2023 ERAS survey and found that 46% (45–48%) of MSM in the region reported reducing their number of sexual partners during that period—closely matching model estimates. In contrast, postexposure prophylaxis vaccination and immunity among highly active MSM were insufficient to halt the outbreak. Both model predictions and survey results underscore the role of widespread, spontaneous behavioural adaptations, regardless of risk profile, in driving the epidemic downturn. These findings highlight the importance of effective risk communication and community engagement in outbreak management.