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<p>Didicas volcano in the northern Philippines is one of the most active volcanoes along the Luzon volcanic arc and a potential source of non-seismic tsunamis in the Luzon Strait region. Here we assess its conditional tsunamigenic potential using seven prescribed scenarios involving underwater explosions and flank collapses. Four explosion scenarios use equivalent source diameters of 3.5–6.0 km at depths of 100–400 m, whereas three collapse scenarios involve volumes of 0.5, 1.7, and 13.37 km³. These scenarios are not deterministic forecasts but are designed to bracket mechanism-dependent tsunami responses, from analogue-supported collapses to low-probability, high-impact upper-bound cases. The simulations reveal clear contrasts between the two mechanisms. Explosion-generated waves are short-period, rapidly dispersive, and largely confined to the near field, with amplitudes decreasing below 1 m beyond approximately 100 km. In contrast, flank-collapse tsunamis are longer-period, more persistent, and more efficient in transmitting energy across the Luzon Strait. In the largest collapse scenario, near-field amplitudes exceed 20 m, waves of approximately 1–2 m reach southern Taiwan island and the southern Ryukyus within 1–1.5 h, and amplitudes of approximately 0.8–1.0 m reach the southeastern China within about 3 h. Regional bathymetry strongly modulates these impacts: the Hengchun–Luzon–Gagua ridge–arc system guides energy northward, whereas the broad shelf delays and attenuates westward arrivals. These results show that flank collapses, particularly larger volume failures, should be explicitly considered in regional volcanic-tsunami hazard assessments and early-warning strategies.</p>

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Tsunamigenic potential of Didicas volcano, northern Philippines

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月14日

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  • Kan Zhang,
  • Linlin Li,
  • Peng Du,
  • Andrea Verolino,
  • Adam D. Switzer

摘要

Didicas volcano in the northern Philippines is one of the most active volcanoes along the Luzon volcanic arc and a potential source of non-seismic tsunamis in the Luzon Strait region. Here we assess its conditional tsunamigenic potential using seven prescribed scenarios involving underwater explosions and flank collapses. Four explosion scenarios use equivalent source diameters of 3.5–6.0 km at depths of 100–400 m, whereas three collapse scenarios involve volumes of 0.5, 1.7, and 13.37 km³. These scenarios are not deterministic forecasts but are designed to bracket mechanism-dependent tsunami responses, from analogue-supported collapses to low-probability, high-impact upper-bound cases. The simulations reveal clear contrasts between the two mechanisms. Explosion-generated waves are short-period, rapidly dispersive, and largely confined to the near field, with amplitudes decreasing below 1 m beyond approximately 100 km. In contrast, flank-collapse tsunamis are longer-period, more persistent, and more efficient in transmitting energy across the Luzon Strait. In the largest collapse scenario, near-field amplitudes exceed 20 m, waves of approximately 1–2 m reach southern Taiwan island and the southern Ryukyus within 1–1.5 h, and amplitudes of approximately 0.8–1.0 m reach the southeastern China within about 3 h. Regional bathymetry strongly modulates these impacts: the Hengchun–Luzon–Gagua ridge–arc system guides energy northward, whereas the broad shelf delays and attenuates westward arrivals. These results show that flank collapses, particularly larger volume failures, should be explicitly considered in regional volcanic-tsunami hazard assessments and early-warning strategies.