<p>Global floods are intensifying, yet climate change alone cannot resolve the persistent precipitation-flood paradox. Our millennial-scale analysis of the Yangtze River reveals that human activities, primarily deforestation and polder expansion, now outweigh climatic drivers in shaping flood regimes. This profound transition from natural to human-driven dominance necessitates a paradigm shift in risk prediction, prioritizing land-use dynamics to accurately capture extreme events that defy conventional hydrological expectations.</p>

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Anthropogenic transition in flood regimes: insights from a millennium of the Yangtze River records

  • Yuanbo Liu,
  • Ge Sun,
  • Jianguo Wu,
  • Yongwei Liu,
  • Han Zhou,
  • Steven G. McNulty,
  • Chenxi Liu

摘要

Global floods are intensifying, yet climate change alone cannot resolve the persistent precipitation-flood paradox. Our millennial-scale analysis of the Yangtze River reveals that human activities, primarily deforestation and polder expansion, now outweigh climatic drivers in shaping flood regimes. This profound transition from natural to human-driven dominance necessitates a paradigm shift in risk prediction, prioritizing land-use dynamics to accurately capture extreme events that defy conventional hydrological expectations.