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<p>The global population faces escalating risks from compound climate extremes, but their future trajectories and differential impacts across age groups and regions remain unclear. This study reveals significant disparities in exposure to compound climate extremes between developed and developing countries, driven by climate and population change, with age-specific insights critical for understanding human vulnerability. Heat-related compound extremes pose the greatest risk, particularly in Africa and Asia. Children and youth are particularly vulnerable in Africa, while in Europe, the elderly are most exposed to both heat and cold extremes. In developing regions, exposure increases most under high population growth scenario, i.e., Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 3-7.0, while in developed regions it increases most under the highest warming scenario (SSP5-8.5). Across the world, changing climate is the major contributor to rising exposure for all age groups, more for the younger population, yet in Europe it remains dominant even for the elderly.</p>

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Population exposure to compound climate extremes: global analysis to identify continent wise age group disparities in a warming world

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月13日

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  • Subhasmita Dash,
  • Rajib Maity,
  • Subhra Sekhar Maity,
  • Harald Kunstmann

摘要

The global population faces escalating risks from compound climate extremes, but their future trajectories and differential impacts across age groups and regions remain unclear. This study reveals significant disparities in exposure to compound climate extremes between developed and developing countries, driven by climate and population change, with age-specific insights critical for understanding human vulnerability. Heat-related compound extremes pose the greatest risk, particularly in Africa and Asia. Children and youth are particularly vulnerable in Africa, while in Europe, the elderly are most exposed to both heat and cold extremes. In developing regions, exposure increases most under high population growth scenario, i.e., Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 3-7.0, while in developed regions it increases most under the highest warming scenario (SSP5-8.5). Across the world, changing climate is the major contributor to rising exposure for all age groups, more for the younger population, yet in Europe it remains dominant even for the elderly.