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<p>Green–blue adaptation strategies, including urban parks, wetland restoration and integrated flood management, are increasingly central to climate resilience in African cities. However, while these interventions aim to enhance environmental conditions, they may also accelerate urban displacement. This study provides the first continent-wide causal assessment of how green–blue adaptation initiatives influence socio-economic changes associated with early-stage gentrification. Using two decades of satellite imagery and socio-economic panel data from 5,503 cities and municipalities across 32 African countries and applying a difference-in-differences framework, we find that adaptation infrastructure is associated with rising housing prices, income levels, consumption and population growth. These patterns indicate emerging gentrification dynamics following adaptation investments. Our findings reveal a critical tension: although climate-resilient infrastructure can improve environmental conditions, it may also exacerbate socio-spatial inequality without equitable housing and land-use policies. Addressing this gentrification paradox is essential to ensuring that climate adaptation in African cities is resilient and socially just.</p>

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The gentrification paradox of green–blue adaptation in African cities

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月13日

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  • Seung Kyum Kim,
  • Hyemin Cho,
  • Longfeng Wu,
  • ChengHe Guan

摘要

Green–blue adaptation strategies, including urban parks, wetland restoration and integrated flood management, are increasingly central to climate resilience in African cities. However, while these interventions aim to enhance environmental conditions, they may also accelerate urban displacement. This study provides the first continent-wide causal assessment of how green–blue adaptation initiatives influence socio-economic changes associated with early-stage gentrification. Using two decades of satellite imagery and socio-economic panel data from 5,503 cities and municipalities across 32 African countries and applying a difference-in-differences framework, we find that adaptation infrastructure is associated with rising housing prices, income levels, consumption and population growth. These patterns indicate emerging gentrification dynamics following adaptation investments. Our findings reveal a critical tension: although climate-resilient infrastructure can improve environmental conditions, it may also exacerbate socio-spatial inequality without equitable housing and land-use policies. Addressing this gentrification paradox is essential to ensuring that climate adaptation in African cities is resilient and socially just.