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<p>Flood research often emphasizes local, direct damages and treats cities as isolated, overlooking development heterogeneity and cascading supply-chain effects. Here we address this gap by coupling flood hazards with a risk-extended multiregional input–output model for 306 Chinese cities across 6 return periods. We quantify direct losses and trace indirect propagation, separating local-indirect losses in the flooded city from ripple losses elsewhere and introduce a spillover indicator for passive losses in nonflooded cities. Losses rise nonlinearly with severity, shifting from direct capital losses in frequent, low-intensity events to local-indirect losses in rare, high-intensity events. Spatial disparities emerge: wealthier cities incur larger absolute but lower loss-to-GDP impacts, whereas poorer cities face higher proportional losses, especially via labor. Spillovers concentrate in major hubs, amplifying systemic risk. Aggregating city stress tests yields conservative lower bounds; a Yangtze River Delta coshock shows strong amplification. Findings motivate sector- and region-specific adaptation and recovery planning.</p>

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Stress-testing the cascading economic impacts of urban flooding across 306 Chinese cities

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月19日

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  • Delin Fang,
  • Fei Xu,
  • Xuanyi Jin,
  • Changqing Song,
  • Peichao Gao,
  • Laixiang Sun,
  • Daoping Wang,
  • Kuishuang Feng

摘要

Flood research often emphasizes local, direct damages and treats cities as isolated, overlooking development heterogeneity and cascading supply-chain effects. Here we address this gap by coupling flood hazards with a risk-extended multiregional input–output model for 306 Chinese cities across 6 return periods. We quantify direct losses and trace indirect propagation, separating local-indirect losses in the flooded city from ripple losses elsewhere and introduce a spillover indicator for passive losses in nonflooded cities. Losses rise nonlinearly with severity, shifting from direct capital losses in frequent, low-intensity events to local-indirect losses in rare, high-intensity events. Spatial disparities emerge: wealthier cities incur larger absolute but lower loss-to-GDP impacts, whereas poorer cities face higher proportional losses, especially via labor. Spillovers concentrate in major hubs, amplifying systemic risk. Aggregating city stress tests yields conservative lower bounds; a Yangtze River Delta coshock shows strong amplification. Findings motivate sector- and region-specific adaptation and recovery planning.