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<p>Rising temperatures have raised concerns about impacts on mental health, including suicide. However, how climate change will affect global temperature-related suicide remains unclear. Using data from 751 locations across 26 countries, combined with climate projections under 3 emissions scenarios, we estimated temperature–suicide associations and projected temperature-related suicide mortality through the 2050s, assuming no adaptation, demographic shifts or changes in suicide rate. Here we show that climate change is projected to increase suicide mortality attributable to temperature across all studied regions, with the magnitude depending on both the emissions scenario and geographic location. Warmer regions—including Central and South America, South Europe, Southeast Asia and South Africa—show larger increases, while temperate and colder regions such as North America, North Europe, East Asia and Australia show smaller but meaningful rises. These findings highlight the potential of climate change to exacerbate suicide and underscore the importance of adaptive mitigation strategies.</p>

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Multi-country projections of temperature-related suicide mortality

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月30日

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  • Hyeyeong Ro,
  • Yoonhee Kim,
  • Masahiro Hashizume,
  • Lina Madaniyazi,
  • Michelle L. Bell,
  • Yasushi Honda,
  • Antonio Gasparrini,
  • Pierre Masselot,
  • Francesco Sera,
  • Yuming Guo,
  • Shanshan Li,
  • Wenzhong Huang,
  • Micheline De Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho,
  • Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva,
  • Eric Lavigne,
  • Patricia Matus Correa,
  • Nicolas Valdes-Ortega,
  • Haidong Kan,
  • Dominic Roye,
  • Jan Kyselý,
  • Aleš Urban,
  • Hans Orru,
  • Ene Indermitte,
  • Jouni J. K. Jaakkola,
  • Nillo Ryti,
  • Alexandra Schneider,
  • Veronika Huber,
  • Paola Michelozzi,
  • Francesca de’Donato,
  • Magali Hurtado Diaz,
  • Eunice Elizabeth Félix Arellano,
  • Xerxes Seposo,
  • Paul Lester Carlos Chua,
  • Iulian Horia Holobaca,
  • Noah Scovronick,
  • Fella Acquaotta,
  • Ho Kim,
  • Whanhee Lee,
  • Aurelio Tobias,
  • Carmen Íñiguez,
  • Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera,
  • Martina S. Ragettli,
  • Yue Leon Guo,
  • Shih-Chun Pan,
  • Ben Armstrong,
  • Antonella Zanobetti,
  • Joel Schwartz,
  • Tran Ngoc Dang,
  • Van Dung Do,
  • Maximilian Schwarz,
  • Yeonseung Chung

摘要

Rising temperatures have raised concerns about impacts on mental health, including suicide. However, how climate change will affect global temperature-related suicide remains unclear. Using data from 751 locations across 26 countries, combined with climate projections under 3 emissions scenarios, we estimated temperature–suicide associations and projected temperature-related suicide mortality through the 2050s, assuming no adaptation, demographic shifts or changes in suicide rate. Here we show that climate change is projected to increase suicide mortality attributable to temperature across all studied regions, with the magnitude depending on both the emissions scenario and geographic location. Warmer regions—including Central and South America, South Europe, Southeast Asia and South Africa—show larger increases, while temperate and colder regions such as North America, North Europe, East Asia and Australia show smaller but meaningful rises. These findings highlight the potential of climate change to exacerbate suicide and underscore the importance of adaptive mitigation strategies.