Projecting the morbidity burden of mental and behavioral disorders associated with increasing humid heat in Shanghai
摘要
Residents of low-latitude megacities face growing vulnerability to humid-heat stress under urbanization and global warming, yet limited research has assessed the morbidity burden of mental and behavioral disorders (MBDs) linked to humid-heat exposures in these cities. Here we quantify the hospital admissions of MBDs in Shanghai, a megacity of over 25 million inhabitants, attributable to humid heat, and project future burdens under various greenhouse gas (GHG)-emission and population scenarios. Humid heat drives a higher morbidity burden than high temperature alone, especially in humid-heat nights. Without population change, the humid-heat-related morbidity burden of MBDs would increase by 68.2% (95% empirical confidence interval 56.7%–81.6%) under the highest-GHG-emission scenario by the 2090s, while 8,465 (95% empirical confidence interval 6,928–10,053) cases would be avoided by reducing emissions to the lowest pathway. With projected population decline, the attributable hospital admissions will decrease toward century’s end. These findings highlight the benefit of GHG mitigation in reducing the growing MBD risks posed by extreme humid heat.