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<p>Human activities and climate change threaten ecosystem sustainability, affecting both wildlife and human populations. Integrating climate change knowledge into marine spatial planning (MSP) is necessary to support ecosystem-based, forward-looking ocean management together with adaptation and mitigation actions. By using species distribution models of 72 marine species, we project climate-related effects on the main human uses of the ocean in Portugal (conservation, fisheries, aquaculture, tourism and recreation). Models were fitted with 11 statistical techniques and ensembles were run under two representative climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Models show a drastic loss of habitat suitability across the Portuguese maritime area in the near future (2050 s and 2090 s). Our projections allow for preliminary identification of key areas of interest for MSP in Portugal, from cross-sector risks to opportunities and represent a first assessment of the climate resilience of Portuguese MSP. Future directions to support the implementation of climate-smart MSP in Portugal are suggested.</p>

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Projecting biodiversity change to support climate-smart ocean planning in Portugal

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月19日

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  • Elisabeth Julien,
  • Catarina Frazão Santos,
  • Tiago A. Marques,
  • Joana Boavida-Portugal

摘要

Human activities and climate change threaten ecosystem sustainability, affecting both wildlife and human populations. Integrating climate change knowledge into marine spatial planning (MSP) is necessary to support ecosystem-based, forward-looking ocean management together with adaptation and mitigation actions. By using species distribution models of 72 marine species, we project climate-related effects on the main human uses of the ocean in Portugal (conservation, fisheries, aquaculture, tourism and recreation). Models were fitted with 11 statistical techniques and ensembles were run under two representative climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Models show a drastic loss of habitat suitability across the Portuguese maritime area in the near future (2050 s and 2090 s). Our projections allow for preliminary identification of key areas of interest for MSP in Portugal, from cross-sector risks to opportunities and represent a first assessment of the climate resilience of Portuguese MSP. Future directions to support the implementation of climate-smart MSP in Portugal are suggested.