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<p>Amid growing climate risks and energy security challenges, Canada’s path to Net Zero emissions by 2050 hinges on regionally differentiated transformations across its energy system. This study presents a detailed scenario-based analysis using MESSAGEix-Canada, the country’s first open-source, sub-national integrated assessment model. We explore how energy system transitions evolve across provinces and sectors. We show that a Net Zero-aligned transition can be achieved without increasing total energy system investments relative to the Legislated pathway and without reducing the level of useful energy services delivered to end users. Instead, the Net Zero scenario relies on a reallocation of capital away from fossil fuel supply toward electrification, efficiency improvements, clean hydrogen, and enabling infrastructure. At the same time, the transition unfolds unevenly across regions, reflecting differences in resources, infrastructure, and industrial structure. Resource-intensive provinces such as Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador undergo big structural changes in energy supply, while electricity-rich provinces, including Ontario and Quebec, emerge as hubs of electrification and clean energy deployment. Overall, the analysis demonstrates that achieving Net Zero in Canada is technically feasible and cost-effective at the system level, but requires distinct provincial transition pathways and coordinated, multi-level policy action.</p>

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Decarbonization pathways for Canada’s federated energy system using a subnational integrated assessment model

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月6日

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  • Muhammad Awais,
  • Deven Azevedo,
  • Madeleine McPherson

摘要

Amid growing climate risks and energy security challenges, Canada’s path to Net Zero emissions by 2050 hinges on regionally differentiated transformations across its energy system. This study presents a detailed scenario-based analysis using MESSAGEix-Canada, the country’s first open-source, sub-national integrated assessment model. We explore how energy system transitions evolve across provinces and sectors. We show that a Net Zero-aligned transition can be achieved without increasing total energy system investments relative to the Legislated pathway and without reducing the level of useful energy services delivered to end users. Instead, the Net Zero scenario relies on a reallocation of capital away from fossil fuel supply toward electrification, efficiency improvements, clean hydrogen, and enabling infrastructure. At the same time, the transition unfolds unevenly across regions, reflecting differences in resources, infrastructure, and industrial structure. Resource-intensive provinces such as Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador undergo big structural changes in energy supply, while electricity-rich provinces, including Ontario and Quebec, emerge as hubs of electrification and clean energy deployment. Overall, the analysis demonstrates that achieving Net Zero in Canada is technically feasible and cost-effective at the system level, but requires distinct provincial transition pathways and coordinated, multi-level policy action.