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Background <p>The COVID-19 pandemic has illustrated how nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as mask-wearing, social distancing, and purifying air, can successfully mitigate transmission and reduce infections in the short term. However, the longer-term implications of these interventions on infection levels are less clear. In tandem, recent observational evidence suggests that the relative susceptibility of partially immune individuals to infection may be dose-dependent, i.e., higher exposures are more likely to result in (re)infection in individuals with prior immunity from infection or vaccination.</p> Methods <p>To examine this question, we use mechanistic immuno-epidemiological models to determine the equilibrium infection levels with NPI-induced reductions in transmission in the presence of this dose-dependency.</p> Results <p>We find that NPIs can successfully decrease the number of infections at endemicity, even in high transmission scenarios. We also show that this effect is heightened by vaccination, especially if a durable, broadly-protective (i.e., broad antigen specificity) vaccine is deployed. Finally, we find that NPI-induced declines in infection levels are strongly magnified if the characteristics of subsequent infections, such as transmissibility or duration, are also dose-dependent.</p> Conclusions <p>Overall, our results suggest that the long-term usage of NPIs could successfully reduce infections especially where immunity-exposure trade-offs apply due to dose-dependency, and illustrate the urgent need to characterize the underlying relationships between exposure and host immune responses.</p>

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Epidemiological impacts of nonpharmaceutical interventions are modulated by immunity exposure trade offs

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月1日

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  • Chadi M. Saad-Roy,
  • Bjarke Frost Nielsen,
  • Margaret L. Lind,
  • Caroline E. Wagner,
  • Arne Traulsen,
  • C. Jessica E. Metcalf,
  • Mike Boots,
  • Derek A. T. Cummings,
  • Bryan T. Grenfell

摘要

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has illustrated how nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as mask-wearing, social distancing, and purifying air, can successfully mitigate transmission and reduce infections in the short term. However, the longer-term implications of these interventions on infection levels are less clear. In tandem, recent observational evidence suggests that the relative susceptibility of partially immune individuals to infection may be dose-dependent, i.e., higher exposures are more likely to result in (re)infection in individuals with prior immunity from infection or vaccination.

Methods

To examine this question, we use mechanistic immuno-epidemiological models to determine the equilibrium infection levels with NPI-induced reductions in transmission in the presence of this dose-dependency.

Results

We find that NPIs can successfully decrease the number of infections at endemicity, even in high transmission scenarios. We also show that this effect is heightened by vaccination, especially if a durable, broadly-protective (i.e., broad antigen specificity) vaccine is deployed. Finally, we find that NPI-induced declines in infection levels are strongly magnified if the characteristics of subsequent infections, such as transmissibility or duration, are also dose-dependent.

Conclusions

Overall, our results suggest that the long-term usage of NPIs could successfully reduce infections especially where immunity-exposure trade-offs apply due to dose-dependency, and illustrate the urgent need to characterize the underlying relationships between exposure and host immune responses.