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<p>Ice cover on large lakes regulates regional weather and aquatic ecosystems, and understanding lake ice responses to climate change is critical for environmental management. However, lake-wide ice records are generally restricted to the remote sensing era, limiting inferences about long-term shifts in climate. Here, we use continuous air temperature records to reconstruct lake-wide ice cover for each of the Laurentian Great Lakes between 1898 and 2022, assessing the skill of a statistical model against satellite observations from recent decades. Reconstructed ice records reveal a prominent multidecadal oscillation (~60-year period) superimposed on a century-scale warming trend that is significantly weaker than trends inferred over recent decades (1975 − 2022). We find that trends and variability are strongly associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, indicating a persistent ocean-atmosphere-lake interaction that modulates North American winter conditions. Results show that short observational windows can overstate ice trends and underrepresent internal variability. These findings highlight the need for century-scale records to disentangle decadal climate variability from the persistent effects of anthropogenic warming when assessing regional cryosphere change.</p>

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Century-long data reveals complex trends in ice cover in the Laurentian Great Lakes

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月28日

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  • David Cannon,
  • Hazem U. Abdelhady,
  • Ayumi Fujisaki-Manome,
  • Meena Raju,
  • Jia Wang,
  • James Kessler,
  • Elleanna Viere,
  • Khush Bafna

摘要

Ice cover on large lakes regulates regional weather and aquatic ecosystems, and understanding lake ice responses to climate change is critical for environmental management. However, lake-wide ice records are generally restricted to the remote sensing era, limiting inferences about long-term shifts in climate. Here, we use continuous air temperature records to reconstruct lake-wide ice cover for each of the Laurentian Great Lakes between 1898 and 2022, assessing the skill of a statistical model against satellite observations from recent decades. Reconstructed ice records reveal a prominent multidecadal oscillation (~60-year period) superimposed on a century-scale warming trend that is significantly weaker than trends inferred over recent decades (1975 − 2022). We find that trends and variability are strongly associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, indicating a persistent ocean-atmosphere-lake interaction that modulates North American winter conditions. Results show that short observational windows can overstate ice trends and underrepresent internal variability. These findings highlight the need for century-scale records to disentangle decadal climate variability from the persistent effects of anthropogenic warming when assessing regional cryosphere change.