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<p>Earthquake doublets—nearby events of similar size striking within a short period—have been a seismological puzzle for 50 years. Is the second event simply an unusually large aftershock, or do doublets arise from a distinct mechanism? If all subduction zones exhibit the same percentage of doublets, that would support the first view. But if some trenches generate many more than others, that would support the second. Here we find that while all doublets undergo Omori-type aftershock decay, the Solomon-Vanuatu subduction zone produces half the world’s doublets, ten times more than the other trench. We argue that this results from abundant near-vertical tear faults in its slab and forearc, with stress transfer more efficient between the subduction interface and adjacent tear faults than along the interface. Tear faults also segment the megathrust interface, hampering propagation of great earthquakes and so confining ruptures, resulting in a low M ≥ 8 quake rate. Thus, while doublets occur along all trenches, their abundance is mediated by tear faults.</p>

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Earthquake doublets in subduction zones are an Omori process promoted by megathrust tear fault interaction

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月15日

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  • Yu Jiang,
  • Ross S. Stein,
  • Daniel T. Trugman

摘要

Earthquake doublets—nearby events of similar size striking within a short period—have been a seismological puzzle for 50 years. Is the second event simply an unusually large aftershock, or do doublets arise from a distinct mechanism? If all subduction zones exhibit the same percentage of doublets, that would support the first view. But if some trenches generate many more than others, that would support the second. Here we find that while all doublets undergo Omori-type aftershock decay, the Solomon-Vanuatu subduction zone produces half the world’s doublets, ten times more than the other trench. We argue that this results from abundant near-vertical tear faults in its slab and forearc, with stress transfer more efficient between the subduction interface and adjacent tear faults than along the interface. Tear faults also segment the megathrust interface, hampering propagation of great earthquakes and so confining ruptures, resulting in a low M ≥ 8 quake rate. Thus, while doublets occur along all trenches, their abundance is mediated by tear faults.