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<p>The global transition to renewable energy hinges on critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, platinum, antimony, and tungsten, but their extraction and supply chains are imperiled by environmental, social, and governance risks that undermine stability and sustainability. Here, we introduce a novel framework for environmental, social, and governance risks evaluation, fusing a multi-dimensional indicator system with advanced machine learning models. Drawing on conflict events alongside diverse socio-economic and environmental indicators, we predict environmental, social, and governance risks at a global scale. Results uncover marked spatial heterogeneity, with elevated risks in the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia associated with governance weaknesses and environmental pressures. Tungsten exhibits the highest overall environmental, social, and governance risks, while platinum the lowest. Our findings underscore the need for targeted, dimension-specific mitigation strategies and enhanced international cooperation to bolster sustainable governance and secure critical mineral supplies for a resilient energy transition.</p><p></p>

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Revealing environmental, social, and governance-driven conflict risk in global energy transition minerals supply

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月29日

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  • Yongguang Zhu,
  • Jinning Zhu,
  • Xiaoyang Lin,
  • Zhewei Yu,
  • Shiquan Dou,
  • Penghong Cheng,
  • Gang Liu,
  • Deyi Xu

摘要

The global transition to renewable energy hinges on critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, platinum, antimony, and tungsten, but their extraction and supply chains are imperiled by environmental, social, and governance risks that undermine stability and sustainability. Here, we introduce a novel framework for environmental, social, and governance risks evaluation, fusing a multi-dimensional indicator system with advanced machine learning models. Drawing on conflict events alongside diverse socio-economic and environmental indicators, we predict environmental, social, and governance risks at a global scale. Results uncover marked spatial heterogeneity, with elevated risks in the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia associated with governance weaknesses and environmental pressures. Tungsten exhibits the highest overall environmental, social, and governance risks, while platinum the lowest. Our findings underscore the need for targeted, dimension-specific mitigation strategies and enhanced international cooperation to bolster sustainable governance and secure critical mineral supplies for a resilient energy transition.