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<p>Extreme flooding poses threats to earth-and-rock dams and downstream communities, especially in glacierized basins with unclear flood predictability. Here, combining a high-resolution cryosphere-hydrological model with observations, we project a significant increase in flood frequency and intensity at the largest glacierized Third Pole basin (upper Indus) during 1981–2100, with greater unpredictability in river floods. Although flood increases are predominantly driven by rising rainfall, snow/glacier melt remains crucial, with the maximum contribution to floods exceeding 70%. Notably, earlier snow ablation is projected to advance flood peaks, and enhanced rainfall contribution will accelerate flood rising rates. Consequently, by 2100, the frequency at which Tarbela Dam (world’s largest earth-and-rock dam) reaches its maximum-conservation-level is expected to increase by 2.7 ± 0.9 times, due to increasing water-sediment fluxes; downstream exposed population and Gross Domestic Product will increase by 6.0 ± 2.3 and 27.8 ± 9.3 times, respectively. These findings call for operational adjustments of earth-and-rock dams to resist increasing floods.</p>

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More unpredictable river floods at the most glacierized Third Pole basin

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月14日

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  • Hu Liu,
  • Lei Wang,
  • Deliang Chen,
  • Tandong Yao,
  • Ahmad Bashir

摘要

Extreme flooding poses threats to earth-and-rock dams and downstream communities, especially in glacierized basins with unclear flood predictability. Here, combining a high-resolution cryosphere-hydrological model with observations, we project a significant increase in flood frequency and intensity at the largest glacierized Third Pole basin (upper Indus) during 1981–2100, with greater unpredictability in river floods. Although flood increases are predominantly driven by rising rainfall, snow/glacier melt remains crucial, with the maximum contribution to floods exceeding 70%. Notably, earlier snow ablation is projected to advance flood peaks, and enhanced rainfall contribution will accelerate flood rising rates. Consequently, by 2100, the frequency at which Tarbela Dam (world’s largest earth-and-rock dam) reaches its maximum-conservation-level is expected to increase by 2.7 ± 0.9 times, due to increasing water-sediment fluxes; downstream exposed population and Gross Domestic Product will increase by 6.0 ± 2.3 and 27.8 ± 9.3 times, respectively. These findings call for operational adjustments of earth-and-rock dams to resist increasing floods.