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<p>In response to the global challenge of climate change mitigation, Japan has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. However, Japan’s rapidly aging population and persistently low birthrate may influence its future carbon emissions. Here we examine the evolution of age-based household carbon footprints in Japan between 2005 and 2020, combining a large-scale household survey with multiregional input-output tables. We then estimate future household carbon footprints under different demographic scenarios between 2020 and 2040, exploring the impacts of demographic changes on household carbon footprints. We find that older people in Japan have gradually surpassed younger generations as the highest per capita carbon emitters. Therefore, scenarios that slow aging trends, such as increased fertility rates, could mitigate future per capita carbon footprints. These findings suggest that demographic structure plays an important role in shaping household carbon footprints, and that policies affecting demographic structure, such as fertility policy, may influence future emissions.</p>

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Evolution and future trend of household carbon footprints in aging Japan

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月27日

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  • Junai Yang,
  • Yuze Li,
  • Binyuan Liu,
  • Fei Yan,
  • Ling Tang,
  • Jinjun Xue,
  • Qian Sun,
  • Shouyang Wang

摘要

In response to the global challenge of climate change mitigation, Japan has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. However, Japan’s rapidly aging population and persistently low birthrate may influence its future carbon emissions. Here we examine the evolution of age-based household carbon footprints in Japan between 2005 and 2020, combining a large-scale household survey with multiregional input-output tables. We then estimate future household carbon footprints under different demographic scenarios between 2020 and 2040, exploring the impacts of demographic changes on household carbon footprints. We find that older people in Japan have gradually surpassed younger generations as the highest per capita carbon emitters. Therefore, scenarios that slow aging trends, such as increased fertility rates, could mitigate future per capita carbon footprints. These findings suggest that demographic structure plays an important role in shaping household carbon footprints, and that policies affecting demographic structure, such as fertility policy, may influence future emissions.