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<p>Understanding the seasonal lake dynamics is critical for water resource management and climate adaptation, yet intra-annual variability of Tibetan Plateau (TP) lakes remains poorly characterized. Here we present a monthly lake-surface area dataset covering 23,623 lakes (2000-2021), and propose a two-tiered classification framework identifying six distinct seasonal patterns. It reveals that semi-annual-cycle lakes predominate in endorheic regions while annual-cycle lakes concentrate in exorheic basins. Annual-cycle lakes are governed by single dominant factors and exhibit remarkable stability. In contrast, semi-annual-cycle lakes reflect coupled spring snowmelt and late-summer precipitation dynamics, showing high vulnerability to transitions. The Spring Peak (SP) pattern, whose shifts are attributable to intensified glacial melt and permafrost thaw, serves as a sensitive indicator of environmental changes. Seasonal complexity scales non-linearly with lake size. The post-2015 lake expansion coincided with rapid intensification of seasonal amplitude, indicating a fundamental hydrological transition that could threaten pastoral systems and water security across vulnerable endorheic regions.</p>

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Seasonal cycles and drivers of lake-surface area change on the Tibetan Plateau

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月6日

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  • Qiuyu Yao,
  • Zhongxiang Liu,
  • Dejun Zhu,
  • Danxun Li

摘要

Understanding the seasonal lake dynamics is critical for water resource management and climate adaptation, yet intra-annual variability of Tibetan Plateau (TP) lakes remains poorly characterized. Here we present a monthly lake-surface area dataset covering 23,623 lakes (2000-2021), and propose a two-tiered classification framework identifying six distinct seasonal patterns. It reveals that semi-annual-cycle lakes predominate in endorheic regions while annual-cycle lakes concentrate in exorheic basins. Annual-cycle lakes are governed by single dominant factors and exhibit remarkable stability. In contrast, semi-annual-cycle lakes reflect coupled spring snowmelt and late-summer precipitation dynamics, showing high vulnerability to transitions. The Spring Peak (SP) pattern, whose shifts are attributable to intensified glacial melt and permafrost thaw, serves as a sensitive indicator of environmental changes. Seasonal complexity scales non-linearly with lake size. The post-2015 lake expansion coincided with rapid intensification of seasonal amplitude, indicating a fundamental hydrological transition that could threaten pastoral systems and water security across vulnerable endorheic regions.