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<p>Identifying refugia can provide important insights for conservationists planning protected areas. However, most current methods for identifying refugia emphasize short-term survivorship during a crisis rather than long-term recovery. Here, we propose a method for identifying refugia that emphasizes range re-expansion, and we present a case study using pollen data from three plant taxa over the past 20 kyr in northern Alaska, USA to evaluate the method’s validity. We identified a substantial decrease and subsequent recovery in spruce presence across the study region between 16.0–11.0 ka and tested the pattern’s significance using a Monte Carlo analysis. During this interval of relatively warm and dry regional climate, spruce persisted in one locality that acted as a source for post-crisis re-expansion, indicating that this locality was a refugium. Using this method to understand how successful refugia form in different crises would provide conservationists with more informative guidelines for planning protected areas.</p>

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Geohistorical data reveal an ice age refugium with implications for modern conservation

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  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月7日

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  • Nathaniel E. D. Morley,
  • Chris L. Schneider,
  • James F. Cahill Jr.,
  • Corwin Sullivan,
  • Lindsey R. Leighton

摘要

Identifying refugia can provide important insights for conservationists planning protected areas. However, most current methods for identifying refugia emphasize short-term survivorship during a crisis rather than long-term recovery. Here, we propose a method for identifying refugia that emphasizes range re-expansion, and we present a case study using pollen data from three plant taxa over the past 20 kyr in northern Alaska, USA to evaluate the method’s validity. We identified a substantial decrease and subsequent recovery in spruce presence across the study region between 16.0–11.0 ka and tested the pattern’s significance using a Monte Carlo analysis. During this interval of relatively warm and dry regional climate, spruce persisted in one locality that acted as a source for post-crisis re-expansion, indicating that this locality was a refugium. Using this method to understand how successful refugia form in different crises would provide conservationists with more informative guidelines for planning protected areas.