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<p>Earth’s energy imbalance has increased markedly over the past two decades, reaching a record in 2023. Both the long-term trend and year-to-year variations are linked to reduced reflection of sunlight by low-level clouds, which is pronounced over Northern Hemisphere oceans. However, the causes of these cloud changes and their implications for future Earth system evolution are unknown, raising concerns about a stronger-than-expected cloud feedback. Here we quantify the meteorological factors behind interannual cloud-radiative anomalies, several of which aligned to produce the extreme 2023 value. These meteorological variations are superposed on a background of declining sulfate aerosol concentrations, contributing to a sustained decrease in cloud reflection over the past 22 years. The resulting constraints on cloud feedback and aerosol forcing are consistent with previous studies, supporting an equilibrium climate sensitivity near 3<sup>∘</sup>C (likely range 2.7–4.1<sup>∘</sup>C). Thus, recent observations do not indicate an emerging stronger cloud feedback or underestimated future warming.</p>

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Recent cloud trends and extremes reaffirm established bounds on cloud feedback and aerosol-cloud interactions

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月31日

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  • Mark D. Zelinka,
  • Timothy A. Myers,
  • Yi Qin,
  • Li-Wei Chao,
  • Stephen A. Klein,
  • Stephen Po-Chedley,
  • Po-Lun Ma,
  • Casey J. Wall,
  • Paulo Ceppi,
  • Andrew Gettelman

摘要

Earth’s energy imbalance has increased markedly over the past two decades, reaching a record in 2023. Both the long-term trend and year-to-year variations are linked to reduced reflection of sunlight by low-level clouds, which is pronounced over Northern Hemisphere oceans. However, the causes of these cloud changes and their implications for future Earth system evolution are unknown, raising concerns about a stronger-than-expected cloud feedback. Here we quantify the meteorological factors behind interannual cloud-radiative anomalies, several of which aligned to produce the extreme 2023 value. These meteorological variations are superposed on a background of declining sulfate aerosol concentrations, contributing to a sustained decrease in cloud reflection over the past 22 years. The resulting constraints on cloud feedback and aerosol forcing are consistent with previous studies, supporting an equilibrium climate sensitivity near 3∘C (likely range 2.7–4.1∘C). Thus, recent observations do not indicate an emerging stronger cloud feedback or underestimated future warming.