Scholarlink

<p>The increasing frequency of coral bleaching events, fueled by ocean warming, is driving development of management strategies aimed at minimizing impact and maximizing reef recovery. Accurate early bleaching forecasts could provide the lead time critical for effective planning and intervention, yet existing predictors rely on near-term thermal stress detection with limited accuracy. Here we show that 10 of the 11 bleaching events recorded on the southern Caribbean island of Curaçao since 1990 occurred in years when three large-scale Pacific and Atlantic climate modes aligned, compounding the long-term warming trend to drive reef temperatures above bleaching thresholds. Using climate mode indices available months prior to peak bleaching, we develop the Bleaching Event Early Predictor, a mode-based risk assessment tool that provides 5–6 months of lead time for management action. Although developed for Curaçao, this framework is likely adaptable across reef systems, offering a pathway towards seasonal prediction of bleaching risk.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Climate modes can be leveraged to forecast coral bleaching months in advance

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月3日

查看全文
  • Mariya Galochkina,
  • Anne L. Cohen,
  • Delia W. Oppo,
  • Caroline C. Ummenhofer

摘要

The increasing frequency of coral bleaching events, fueled by ocean warming, is driving development of management strategies aimed at minimizing impact and maximizing reef recovery. Accurate early bleaching forecasts could provide the lead time critical for effective planning and intervention, yet existing predictors rely on near-term thermal stress detection with limited accuracy. Here we show that 10 of the 11 bleaching events recorded on the southern Caribbean island of Curaçao since 1990 occurred in years when three large-scale Pacific and Atlantic climate modes aligned, compounding the long-term warming trend to drive reef temperatures above bleaching thresholds. Using climate mode indices available months prior to peak bleaching, we develop the Bleaching Event Early Predictor, a mode-based risk assessment tool that provides 5–6 months of lead time for management action. Although developed for Curaçao, this framework is likely adaptable across reef systems, offering a pathway towards seasonal prediction of bleaching risk.