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<p>Understanding the dynamic interplay between floods and climate extremes in the Tibetan Plateau has long been constrained by scale fragmentation. Here, we elucidate the scale-dependent responses using historical observations and modelling. The average flood day and annual maximum daily discharge are governed by two complementary pathways: atmospheric input and catchment modulation. Spatially, flood drivers shift from cryosphere control in the west to monsoon control in the east. Crucially, low-order tributaries are dominated by the atmospheric source mechanism, responding instantaneously to high-intensity precipitation, while catchment modulators play a more important role in high-order mainstems. Furthermore, cross-watershed analysis further underscores that upstream temperature changes contribute 4.0% to downstream flood frequency and 6.4% to magnitude variability via hydrological connectivity. The scale-specific disparities, shaped by the synergistic effects of watershed hydrological processes, underlying surface heterogeneity, climate factor sensitivities, and climate-cryosphere interactions, establish a framework for alpine flood attribution and predictive models.</p>

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Unraveling scale-dependent flood responses to changing climate extremes over the Tibetan Plateau

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月18日

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  • Xiang Li,
  • Peng Cui,
  • Pengke Shen,
  • Xueqin Zhang

摘要

Understanding the dynamic interplay between floods and climate extremes in the Tibetan Plateau has long been constrained by scale fragmentation. Here, we elucidate the scale-dependent responses using historical observations and modelling. The average flood day and annual maximum daily discharge are governed by two complementary pathways: atmospheric input and catchment modulation. Spatially, flood drivers shift from cryosphere control in the west to monsoon control in the east. Crucially, low-order tributaries are dominated by the atmospheric source mechanism, responding instantaneously to high-intensity precipitation, while catchment modulators play a more important role in high-order mainstems. Furthermore, cross-watershed analysis further underscores that upstream temperature changes contribute 4.0% to downstream flood frequency and 6.4% to magnitude variability via hydrological connectivity. The scale-specific disparities, shaped by the synergistic effects of watershed hydrological processes, underlying surface heterogeneity, climate factor sensitivities, and climate-cryosphere interactions, establish a framework for alpine flood attribution and predictive models.