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<p>Abrupt transitions from drought to pluvial conditions are increasingly reported and pose substantial risks to global hydrological stability. However, their occurrence patterns, underlying mechanisms, and future trajectories remain insufficiently understood. Here, we develop a soil moisture-precipitation index to identify such subseasonal transitions using global reanalysis data and climate model projections. Globally, events occur with an average probability of about 45%, exceeding the theoretical expectation under random conditions, and are most frequent in mid-latitude monsoon regions, including South Asia, Central Europe, and the Mediterranean. Moreover, soil moisture deficits at the end of drought enhance the likelihood of strong convective precipitation by intensifying near-surface heating and atmospheric moisture convergence, especially in energy-limited climates. Under a high-emissions future, both event frequency and probability increase across more than three-quarters of global land. Greenhouse gas forcing accounts for most of the projected increases, highlighting growing risks from compound hydroclimatic extremes.</p>

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Land-atmosphere feedbacks and anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing intensify subseasonal drought-to-pluvial abrupt transitions

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月23日

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  • Yinghao Fu,
  • Haishen Lü,
  • Ali Levent Yagci,
  • Yonghua Zhu,
  • Yingying Xu,
  • Tingxing Chen,
  • Jiaying Liu,
  • Yiding Ding,
  • Di Liu,
  • Long Xiang

摘要

Abrupt transitions from drought to pluvial conditions are increasingly reported and pose substantial risks to global hydrological stability. However, their occurrence patterns, underlying mechanisms, and future trajectories remain insufficiently understood. Here, we develop a soil moisture-precipitation index to identify such subseasonal transitions using global reanalysis data and climate model projections. Globally, events occur with an average probability of about 45%, exceeding the theoretical expectation under random conditions, and are most frequent in mid-latitude monsoon regions, including South Asia, Central Europe, and the Mediterranean. Moreover, soil moisture deficits at the end of drought enhance the likelihood of strong convective precipitation by intensifying near-surface heating and atmospheric moisture convergence, especially in energy-limited climates. Under a high-emissions future, both event frequency and probability increase across more than three-quarters of global land. Greenhouse gas forcing accounts for most of the projected increases, highlighting growing risks from compound hydroclimatic extremes.