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<p>Droughts have intensified under climate change, threatening ecosystem stability. While rising atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations may enhance vegetation drought resistance, the net effect remains uncertain amid concurrent warming. Here we combine ecological modeling with multi-source observations to investigate how CO<sub>2</sub> and warming jointly regulate vegetation drought responses on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, a sensitive alpine region exposed to escalating drought threats under changing precipitation regimes. Using factorial scenarios to isolate individual forcings, we show that 40-year CO<sub>2</sub> rise mitigated drought-induced productivity losses by 5.7 ± 0.9% under constant temperature. However, in the presence of warming, rising CO<sub>2</sub> intensifies drought stress by 5.2 ± 0.5%, reflecting increased plant water demand and disrupted regional water supply-demand balance. Permafrost areas experienced the strongest CO<sub>2</sub>-driven drought alleviation under constant temperature, but also the greatest warming-induced reversal. These findings reveal interacting CO<sub>2</sub>-warming impacts on alpine vegetation drought responses, highlightin<Emphasis Type="Underline">g</Emphasis> ecological risks for the plateau and other permafrost-dominant regions under future warming.</p>

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Warming overwhelms CO2-driven drought mitigation in alpine vegetation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月21日

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  • He Lyu,
  • Xueqian Zhang,
  • Jian Su,
  • David Wårlind,
  • Jürgen Knauer,
  • Lina Teckentrup,
  • Jinfeng Chang,
  • Xiyan Xu,
  • Chen Chen,
  • Juntao Zhu,
  • Jian Ni,
  • Stephen Sitch,
  • Yongshuo Fu,
  • Belinda Medlyn,
  • Benjamin Smith,
  • Yuanhe Yang,
  • Mingkai Jiang

摘要

Droughts have intensified under climate change, threatening ecosystem stability. While rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations may enhance vegetation drought resistance, the net effect remains uncertain amid concurrent warming. Here we combine ecological modeling with multi-source observations to investigate how CO2 and warming jointly regulate vegetation drought responses on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, a sensitive alpine region exposed to escalating drought threats under changing precipitation regimes. Using factorial scenarios to isolate individual forcings, we show that 40-year CO2 rise mitigated drought-induced productivity losses by 5.7 ± 0.9% under constant temperature. However, in the presence of warming, rising CO2 intensifies drought stress by 5.2 ± 0.5%, reflecting increased plant water demand and disrupted regional water supply-demand balance. Permafrost areas experienced the strongest CO2-driven drought alleviation under constant temperature, but also the greatest warming-induced reversal. These findings reveal interacting CO2-warming impacts on alpine vegetation drought responses, highlighting ecological risks for the plateau and other permafrost-dominant regions under future warming.